Two recent reports that measure the political preference of Latinos in the United States indicate that the Republican adhesion by this community has been growing since the 2020 presidential elections.

As we previously reported, on December 8th last year, although “it's difficult to gauge how long this trend could last, the Democratic Party has been surprised by numbers from recent elections, such as the presidential ones, whose rise in Latino voters to Republican candidates has increased by about 30%. On the other hand, Republicans have argued that increasing their voters is an even bigger move, resulting in internal party transformation. In 2020, this increase was most notable, especially in South Texas, where Donald Trump made major political advances during the elections”.

According to a report in The New York Times, Trump's re-election campaign put an end to the theory that Latinos were overwhelmingly Democrats: “Hispanic support for him actually increased in 2020, particularly — but not only — in South Florida and South Texas”, which is of even greater concern to Democrats.

With the release of the reports, not only was this concern confirmed, but it also clarified some important factors in the political behavior of the Latino population that could be used in the preparation of campaigns for the legislative elections in the middle of the year. The survey organized by “Equis Research”, a Democratic-trend group which focuses on Latinos, points out that the economic issue is the most important for Latino voters instead of immigration now.

Another report presented by “Way to Win”, another group aligned with Democrats, also points out the economic matters are central in the lives of Latino voters, such as their opinion that the country has not yet taken the right path in this regard.

“The poll surveyed 1,000 Latino voters in Texas, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona last month in both English and Spanish, and found that 58 percent of independent voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Still, 60 percent of all Latino voters surveyed said they had a favorable opinion of President Biden and the Democratic Party”.

However, that preference percentage should be considered low for the Democrats if they are to maintain seats in the House or in the Senate in the next elections, according to the president of Way to Win.

“Half of those polled by Way to Win said that they trusted the Democratic Party more on the issues of jobs and the economy, while 54 percent said they approved of Mr. Biden’s handling of the economy. Among those who have an unfavorable view of the party, 22 percent say it is too liberal or socialist, according to the poll. Yet the majority of those surveyed said they wished that Mr. Biden could have enacted more change than he has so far, which pollsters tied to ‘deep anxiety about the economy’.”

The Equis report further demonstrates that issues that supported the Latino vote for Democrats, such as immigration and “Hispanic” identity, were diluted in 2020 when many Latinos began to support Trump. The economy under the impact of the pandemic “appeared to drive a larger number of voters, and the Trump administration’s approach to reopening the economy was embraced by a majority of them”, according to the report.

Latino voters were asked which party they think more accurately valued "hard work", which was better for "American workers" and the “American Dream” party, Latino voters nearly tied between Republicans and Democrats.

It's worth noting that the theme of this post will be deepened in the analysis of this week.