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THE COST OF EXCLUSION: TRILLION-DOLLAR CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BIRTH-ORIENTED CITIZENS TO THE U.S. ECONOMY

Maria Eduarda Prestes Duarte | 17/04/2026 13:29 | iNFORMS
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An article published in the Journal on Migration and Human Security in March 2026 presented an economic analysis of the contribution of American workers. The text outlines an estimate that birthright citizens will have contributed US$7.7 trillion to the United States economy through their income between 1975 and 2074, including a projection of US$1 trillion from future unborn children.


This study was published amidst intense legal and political controversies. In January 2026, the United States government issued an Executive Order aimed at restricting the right to citizenship by jus soli – the right due to birth on the soil – for children of undocumented parents or those with temporary visas. The government's central thesis is based on a reinterpretation of the 14th Amendment, arguing that the "subject to its jurisdiction" clause would require full political loyalty to the State, which would not be fulfilled by individuals without permanent resident status. The measure faced strong resistance among jurists and politicians who argue that the measure is unconstitutional, since it attempts to bring a "new interpretation" to a "Supreme Law." In law, the legal hierarchy dictates that an executive order does not have the prerogative to subvert the constitutional text consolidated by the Supreme Court and may violate fundamental principles of the country's legal system.


Thus, the beginning of 2026 was marked by several debates about this order, and the article contributed to an analysis from an economic perspective and to the identification of a consequence on workers' contributions to the government. The information that caught attention is that the study estimated that, by accounting for individuals who obtained US citizenship through jus soli, as well as children yet to be born under this right, they could contribute US$7.7 trillion to the United States economy. Therefore, the survey[1] demonstrates that maintaining citizenship by birth is not just a matter of civil rights, but a strategic factor for the sustainability of the country's GDP and workforce.

 

Sources:

BBC NEWS BRASIL. Suprema Corte dos EUA julga fim de cidadania por nascimento ordenado por Trump: como é a regra no mundo. BBC, 2025. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/cvg93xvd0l9o. Accessed on: Apr. 5, 2026.

 

CONNOR, Phillip; HALL, Matthew; ORTEGA, Francesc. Multi-Trillion Dollar and Multi-Million Worker Contributions: An Economic Accounting of Birthright Citizenship. Journal on Migration and Human Security, New York, mar. 2026. Available at: https://cmsny.org/publications/jmhs-birthright-citizenship-econ/.

Accessed on: Apr. 1, 2026.

 

UNITED STATES SENATE. 14th Amendment. Washington, DC: U.S. Senate, 2026. Available at: https://www.senate.gov/about/origins-foundations/senate-and-constitution/14th-amendment.htm. Accessed on: Apr. 5, 2026.



[1] The methodology is based on a long-term economic accounting analysis (1975-2074), using data from the U.S. Census Bureau to project the contribution of 3.9 million individuals divided intro three segments: working-age adults, current children, and a projection of future children (born between 2025 and 2044). The study organizes this population into four career stages – from the initial level (15-24 years) to the late level (up to 64 years)

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