Large metropolitan areas in the United States are experiencing a significant population recovery after the harsh impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic — and the main driver of this growth is international immigration.

According to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the country's 55 main metropolises, which had suffered an unprecedented population drop between 2020 and 2021, gained 2.3 million new residents between 2023 and 2024. In 21 of these regions, immigration was the only positive driver of growth, even offsetting losses from births and internal migration. In total, immigration accounted for 94% of the population growth in these urban centers.

New York symbolizes this turnaround. The city, which at the height of the pandemic recorded the largest population loss in the country, now leads the gains. In 2020-21, the New York metropolitan area shrank by 277 thousand inhabitants. Three years later, it grew again, gaining 213,000 new residents — most of them from abroad.

According to the Brookings publication, this transformation reflects profound changes in migratory flows. During the pandemic, many left large urban centers for less dense regions of the country, especially in the South and West. Now, the movement has lost strength. Cities that had been destinations for internal migrants, such as Atlanta, Dallas and Tampa, also saw their growth rate slow — but they compensated for this slowdown with an increase in immigrant arrivals.

In addition to the metropolises, the central counties — such as Chicago, Philadelphia and San Francisco — also returned to growth. In 2023-24, almost all of the 37 central counties analyzed recorded population growth, after years of losses. In most cases, immigration was the deciding factor.

The scenario marks a stark contrast to the Trump administration years when more restrictive immigration policies and the pandemic drastically reduced foreign inflows. Now, with the resumption of international flows, the numbers indicate that immigration has become essential not only to reverse demographic losses, but to sustain the growth of large cities.

The trend is clear: also, according to the study, with the aging of the population, falling birth rates and less internal mobility, the United States will increasingly depend on the arrival of immigrants to maintain its economic and urban dynamics. Projections indicate that, without higher levels of immigration, the country may face a population decline from 2043, with negative impacts on the labor market and the economy.

Faced with this scenario, experts warn of the urgency of rethinking the debate on immigration. More than a political issue, it is now a strategic necessity to secure the future of American cities.