February 7th, 2022 marks the 60th anniversary of the economic blockade (or embargo) imposed by the United States government on the Republic of Cuba. On February 7th, 1962 President John Kennedy imposed an economic embargo that prohibited all trade with the Island. Considering that the United States, which is only 150 km away, has always been the country's main trading partner, the economic embargo delivered a sharp blow to Cuba. It is estimated that the blockade has caused damages of US$ 130 billion in the 60 years it has been in force, according to estimates by the Cuban government and the United Nations. At that time, the US measure led the Cuban government to approach the Soviet Union, whose relationship, which ended in 1991 with the collapse of the USSR, failed to rebalance the loss of the US market.

Over the past few decades, the Washington government has imposed a series of sanctions against the Havana government. In March 1982, the Ronald Reagan administration labeled Cuba a sponsor of terrorism for supporting national liberation movements in Africa and Latin America. In 1992, after the collapse of the USSR, President George H.W. Bush signed the Cuban Democracy Act, which increased US economic sanctions on Cuba. Among them, a law prohibited ships that have exchanged goods with Cuba in the last 180 days from docking in US ports. It also vetoed foreign subsidiaries of US companies from trading with Cuba and even limited the amount of US currency sold to the country. At that time, it was expected that the new round of sanctions would lead to the collapse of the Cuban government, which did not happen.

Generally, the objective of the United States was to overthrow the socialist government of the Island and institute a "liberal-democratic" regime. In March 1996, the Helms-Burton Law was enacted, which further tightened the blockade by penalizing foreign companies trading with Cuba. This fact provoked criticism from US allies, notably Europe, accusing the law as a form of violation of International Law.

A détente movement took place in December 2014, when Presidents Barack Obama and Raúl Castro announced the restoration of full diplomatic ties following the exchange of a US intelligence officer detained in Cuba for three Cuban prisoners in the US. The deal came after lengthy secret negotiations brokered, in part, by Pope Francis. In June 2015, the embassies in Havana and Washington closed since 1961 were reopened.

However, the trade embargo persisted, as Obama had no support in Congress to change the status, mainly due to pressure from the Cuban exile community in Florida and their representatives in Congress. Still, Barack Obama visited the Island on March 21st, 2016, the first high-profile visit by an American president in 90 years.

The arrival of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2017 cooled the rapprochement between the countries. He reinstated restrictions on US travel to Cuba and ongoing trade negotiations that the previous government had loosened. Days before leaving office, on January 11th, 2021, Trump again included Cuba in the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, reversing another measure adopted by Obama. Then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Cuba of harboring US fugitives and Colombian rebels and supporting the Venezuelan regime.

The administration of Joe Biden did not significantly change bilateral relations, as in addition to not reversing Trump's measures, it imposed new sanctions on Cuba after the local government-controlled a demonstration of dissidents in July 2021. Revolutionaries Armed Forces officials and other Cuban security forces were sanctioned on that occasion.

Despite the series of restrictive measures against the government of Havana, the economic embargo did not achieve its primary objective, which was to overthrow the government that emerged from the victorious revolution on January 1st, 1959, overthrowing the dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista. It is not the case to discuss in this analysis the reason for the resilience of the Cuban Communist Party government. Still, it is a fact that the United States sanctions on the island served to galvanize the support of the local population for the government, despite the various deprivations, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Faced with this situation, the question arises: why does the United States persist in a policy that has not brought it any tangible results in 60 years, that is, for two generations? To answer this question, it is necessary to analyze the exact conformation of US domestic policy to try to understand the persistence of a failed policy.

Currently, estimates indicate that the population of Cuban origin in the United States is about 2.31 million people, with Florida concentrating 1.53 million, or 7.1% of the state's population. In Florida's largest county, Miami-Dade, the Hispanic/Latino population is 65%, of which Cubans make up more than half. This sizeable demographic weight of the people of Cuban origin is mainly due to the various waves of exiles who have left the island since 1959 when the rebels led by Fidel Castro took power.

Since the episode known as the "Invasion of the Bay of Pigs," in 1961, when Cuban exiles, supported by the US government, failed to invade Cuba and overthrow the government, a powerful resentment was created that to this day fuels the movement for the liquidation of the Cuban political regime. Many of these exiles had their property confiscated by the socialist revolution and many American companies that were later nationalized. As we described earlier, the various embargo measures against Cuba since 1962 have had as their main support exile groups based in Florida who are trying to strangle the country financially.

The best-known organization formed by Cuban exiles is the “Cuban-American National Foundation” (FNCA), created in 1982 by Jorge Mas Canosa with the support of the Reagan administration. According to its website, the Cuban-American National Foundation was created “to work tirelessly to restore freedom, democracy, and respect for human rights in Cuba. Convinced that the profound and irreversible reforms that Cuban society requires will never come from the Castro regime, but only from the will and solidarity effort of the Cuban people, within and without the island, we consider our fundamental mission to empower civil society through direct support to groups and leaders of the independent civil society in non-violent efforts that promote citizen participation in claiming fundamental rights and freedoms and in community activism projects to favor the neediest and most marginalized sectors of the population.” In addition to propaganda and political articulation, the FNCA was involved in terrorist attacks against tourist facilities in Cuba in 1996. Two intelligence agents linked to other attacks actively participated: Orlando Bosch and Luis Posada Carriles.

The political activities of the Cuban community in Florida are concentrated around the Republican Party, an organization that adopts a more conservative and anti-communist discourse. According to a survey by the Pew Research Center dropped in October 2020, 58% of registered Cuban voters say they affiliate or lean toward the Republican Party, while 38% identify with the Democratic Party. In contrast, about two-thirds of Hispanic voters in the United States who are not Cubans (65%) identify as Democrats, while 32% affiliate with the Republican Party.

Currently, Senators Marcos Rubio (R-FL), Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Bob Menendez (D-NJ) are on the front lines in organizing stricter measures against the government of Havana. In July 2021, they reached a bipartisan consensus to pass a resolution to protest the Cuban government's handling of protesters who took to the streets of Havana and other cities. In announcing sanctions on Cuba, Joe Biden stated: “I unequivocally condemn the mass detentions and sham trials that are unjustly sentencing to prison those who dared to speak out in an effort to intimidate and threaten the Cuban people into silence. … This is just the beginning–the United States will continue to sanction individuals responsible for oppression of the Cuban people.”

 

It is essential to consider that stricter sanctions against the Cuban government are not a consensus in American society. Particularly concerning the economic blockade, there are severe doubts about the measure's effectiveness in influencing the political direction in Havana. A 2020 Florida International University (FIU) survey shows that: “Since the beginning of the FIU Cuba Poll, a majority of Cuban Americans in South Florida have agreed: the U.S. economic embargo on Cuba has not worked. The question never interprets what could be considered a “successful embargo,” so each respondent is free to evaluate success/failure in her or his own terms. This year is no exception to the rule. Seventy-one percent of respondents recognize that the embargo has not worked. Respondents across all categories share this opinion although registered Republicans and the oldest members of the society tend to give the embargo the highest marks.” However, despite acknowledging its inefficiency, the same FIU survey shows that the majority of Cuban-Americans in South Florida continue to support the embargo: “An increase in support for the embargo, first noted in the 2018 FIU Cuba Poll, has continued to gain strength in the current environment. Approximately 54% of the Cuban-American community supports, either strongly or mostly, the continuation of the U.S. embargo on the island when Don’t Know is considered a response. When an opinion is expressed, 60% of respondents support the continuation of the embargo. The youngest respondents, those born outside of the island and registered Democrats are the least supportive of the almost 60-year-old policy.” 

While Cuban-Americans are resistant to the change in the status of relations between Washington and Havana, sectors of the Democratic Party defend a new approach to the bilateral relationship. According to a December 16, 2021, NBC News report 114 lawmakers from the Democratic Party sent a letter to President Joe Biden asking him to lift the restriction on sending money and goods to Cuba. According to the letter: “We urge you to take immediate humanitarian actions — as the United Nations has urged repeatedly — to suspend U.S. regulations that prevent food, medicine, and other humanitarian assistance from reaching the Cuban people,” the letter said. “We also support a more comprehensive shift to deepen engagement with Cuba and move towards normalization of U.S.-Cuba relations.”

The letter was signed by House Democratic representatives, including Barbara Lee of California, chair of the subcommittee on Appropriations for Foreign Operations; Rules Committee Chair James McGovern of Massachusetts; and the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations, Gregory Meeks, of New York.

Despite pressure from the Democratic Party, it is unlikely that substantial changes will occur in US policy towards Cuba. As we discussed in previous analyzes by the “Latino Observatory,” politics in the United States is very polarized, with a strong prominence of the most conservative sectors. 

This situation reflects the fragile, or almost non-existent, majority of the Biden administration in the Senate. One vote can completely change the course of voting in Congress. Hence the crucial importance of the bench of Cuban-American deputies and senators. Just look at the position of Bob Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He may agree with several measures by the Biden administration, such as the issue of immigration or Build Back Better, but Menendez is reticent about any change in the status of Cuban-American relations. The bench of Republican deputies and senators has great weight, with two senators, Rubio and Cruz, and six more deputies.

Finally, the weight of the Cuban-American community in Florida is so significant that it can determine the winning party in the presidential elections in the state, considered a “swing state,” where Republicans and Democrats compete vote by vote. In this regard, if Biden is considered condescending to the Cuban government, it can be seen as a sign of weakness and a reason for rejection, even if the effectiveness of 60 years of economic blockade proves ineffective to influence the Cuban political process. As far as it is concerned, despite the harmful effects of the embargo, preventing, for example, foreign pharmaceutical companies from cooperating with local laboratories, the small Caribbean country was the first in Latin America to develop its own vaccines.