The news that the 2020 census underestimated the number of blacks, Latinos, and Native Americans in the United States resonated with most of the country's media. This information was released by the US Census Bureau on March 10th, 2022. The text sought to emphasize the accuracy of the data obtained from the research, drawing attention to the difficulties related to the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the agency's director, Robert L. Santos, “Today’s results show statistical evidence that the quality of the 2020 Census total population count is consistent with that of recent censuses. This is notable, given the unprecedented challenges of 2020, but the results also include some limitations — the 2020 Census undercounted many of the same population groups we have historically undercounted, and it overcounted others”. In this case, while African Americans, Latinos, and Native Americans were underestimated, white and Asian groups were overestimated.

The two analyses are from the Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) and Demographic Analysis Estimates (DA) and estimate how well the 2020 Census counted everyone in the nation and in certain demographic groups. They estimate the size of the U.S. population and then compare those estimates to the census counts. The PES estimates the population using a sample survey, while DA estimates the population using vital records and other data. Both the PES and DA estimate whether certain groups were undercounted, meaning the census likely missed some people, or whether they were overcounted, indicating some people may have been counted more than once while others may have been incorrectly included.

Specifically, about the PES data show that:

a) The Black or African American alone or in combination population had a statistically significant undercount of 3.30%. This is not statistically different from the 2.06% undercount in 2010.

b) The Hispanic or Latino population had a statistically significant undercount rate of 4.99%. This is statistically different from a 1.54% undercount in 2010.

c) American Indian or Alaska Native alone or in combination, populations living on reservations show a statistically significant undercount rate of 5.64%. This was not statistically different from a 4.88% undercount in 2010. The American Indian or Alaska Native population alone or in combination living in American Indian areas, but not living on reservations, was not statistically different from zero in 2020 or 2010.

d) The non-Hispanic White alone population had a statistically significant overcount rate of 1.64%. This is statistically different from an overcount of 0.83% in 2010.

e) The Asian alone or in combination population had an overcount rate of 2.62%. This is statistically different from 0.00% in 2010.

f) The Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander alone or in combination population had an estimated overcount rate of 1.28%. This rate is not different from an estimated 1.02% overcount rate in 2010. Both are not statistically different from zero.

Although the US Census Bureau minimizes the problem of undercounting certain minority groups by claiming that the data were statistically correct, the political implications of such a situation are severe, especially since many public policies are defined based on census information. Census figures are used to guide the distribution of about $1.5 trillion each year in federal money directed towards health care, education, transportation, and other public services to local communities. From a political perspective, this information subsidizes the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives among the states and the redistricting process, carried out every 10 years. 

An additional element of controversy related to the 2020 census was the pressure exerted by former President Donald Trump on US Census Bureau officials. According to news from the NPR portal, from January 15th, 2022, in addition to attempting to reduce the collection time of data, Trump officials attempted to interfere with the survey's methodology by attempting to exclude undocumented immigrants from the census counts used to reallocate each state's share of Congressional seats and electoral votes.

According to NPR, “While the former president's unprecedented push did not reach its objective, it wreaked havoc at the federal government's largest statistical agency, which was also contending with the coronavirus pandemic upending most of its plans for the once-a-decade tally. The delays stemming from COVID-19 forced the bureau to conclude that it could no longer meet the legal reporting deadline for the first set of results and needed more time. The administration's last-minute decision to cut the counting short sparked public outcries, including a federal lawsuit that reached the U.S. Supreme Court.”

It may or may not be a coincidence, but the disclosure about the undercount of black, Latino and indigenous citizens comes when the redistricting process is almost complete, with only Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, and New Hampshire missing. Despite bringing information that could change the distribution of seats, the moment the information arrives is too late to interfere with the course of events, especially in the midterm elections of November 2022.

Civil society organizations protested the undercounting of minorities. Arturo Vargas, CEO of the NALEO Educational Fund already warned about the problem in May 2021, as reported by NBS. According to Vargas, “The total resident population number was at the lower end of the estimates, and several states with large Latino populations did not do as well. And unfortunately, that, to me, suggests too many coincidences. […] If the census numbers are wrong, then the amount of funding going to those areas with large Latino populations” means they “are not going to get their fair share,” he said. “And this is a 10-year error. It's not just next year. It's for the next decade”.

In a press release released on March 10th, NALEO expressed its displeasure with the outcome of the census, with minority undercounts and the interference of former Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross in lying to Congress and undermining the work of the US Census Bureau. Afterthe communiqué, NALEO urges reforms in the Bureau with a view to increasing the accuracy of the information, as follows: “Finally, this undercount further demonstrates the dire need for the Census Bureau to make fundamental changes to how it counts the U.S. population. We can no longer rely on the traditional methods of mailing forms out to households and encouraging the public to respond — and conducting door-to-door interviews with households that do not complete these forms. “If our country can find a way to pull through a once-in-a-century global pandemic, we can find a way to count all of our residents fairly and accurately. We need to modernize the census with a fresh approach to make the progress needed to reach this important goal.”

The president of the African American advocacy organization, the National Urban League (NHU), Marc H. Morial, also issued a statement protesting the undercount of people of color, from which we highlight the following passage: “The Census Bureau must rethink and explore more accurate measures of the undercount and develop new data collection methodologies and operations for diverse populations […] Racial inequities are baked into the history of the Census process and the institution of the Census Bureau as an agency. To uphold the Constitutional promise and protection of equal representation for all, the Census Bureau must immediately take steps to rethink and detoxify its operations relative to racial inequities, and Congress must fund research into new operations and sources of data starting next year. The National Urban League shared its concerns about Census operations earlier this month with Census Bureau Director Robert Santos, the Congressional Black Caucus and President Biden.”

The political systems of the United Kingdom and the United States can be considered the most stable in the world. Concerning the first, there are no reports of institutional ruptures since the Glorious Revolution in 1689. In the second, since the end of the Civil War in 1865, there is no record of institutional ruptures, except for the events of January 6th, 2021. However, when closely analyzing the functioning of the US political system, calls attention to the dysfunctionality of some rules and the opportunistic use of legal provisions to circumvent the essence of a democracy, which is to guarantee equal rights for every citizen.

It is interesting to note that not even the electoral changes that emerged in the 1960s, during the civil rights movement led by Martin Luther King, managed to guarantee the full right to vote for the African American population and for Latinos. Even today, political maneuvers persist to curtail the voting rights of minorities, either because elections take place on a working day, which makes it difficult for workers to vote, or because of the decrease in polling places in regions where minorities live and, something that is more serious, due to the gerrymandering in the redistricting process that takes place every 10 years, as we have already discussed on our portal. We have seen that the definition of districts is done in a completely arbitrary way, benefiting the party that has control of the government and state parliaments, regardless of whether they are Democrats or Republicans. Another problem concerns the numerous state legislations that aim to suppress the right to vote, as we also discussed on January 23. In this regard, Congress blocked legislation proposed by Joe Biden to attempt to expand voting rights. 

The issue in question, which deals with the underreporting of the Latino population at 4.99%, the African American population at 3.3% and the indigenous population at 4.88%, is a serious issue with important political implications, as it distorts the representativeness in favor of the white population, which has been in relative decline since the end of the 20th century.

Nothing indicates that this issue will be resolved satisfactorily, since the political system also presents another dysfunction related to the polarization between the two main parties, a fact that paralyzes the construction of minimum consensus for the solution of the main problems of the United States. For the time being, the affected segments only have the right to denounce the arbitrariness and appeal to the judiciary. However, there is no prospect that such dysfunctions can be corrected, nor eight years from now when the new ten-year census will take place.