Nevada's workers and Latino population have long constituted a broad base of Democratic support in the state. However, the loyalty of both groups is now in question. The young voters who drove Senator Bernie Sanders' biggest win in the 2020 Democratic primary remain skeptical of President Joe Biden.

Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat from Nevada and the country's first Latino senator, is one of the party's most threatened incumbents. Home prices have soared, as have rents, faster than any other state. About 10,000 Los Angeles casino workers remain unemployed. Fuel prices were higher than all other states except California, according to a report in The New York Times.

“She must overcome the president’s sagging approval ratings, dissatisfaction with the economy and her own relative anonymity. And she lacks the popularity and deep ties with Latino voters that Senator Harry M. Reid, who died in December, harnessed to help build the state’s powerful Democratic machine. The state has long been a symbol of the Democratic Party’s future by relying on a racially diverse coalition to win elections, but those past gains are now at risk”, according to publication.

“Beyond [low] turnout, a deeper problem for Democrats is that the state has been turning, ever so slightly, less blue. The state’s share of registered Democrats has fallen — from 39.4 percent in 2016 to 33.6 percent in February, according to figures from the Nevada secretary of state. At the same time, more than 28 percent of registered voters are now unaffiliated with any party, an increase from 20 percent in 2016. Officials said the spike in unaffiliated voters stems from an automatic voter registration system Nevada voters adopted in 2018”.

The state's economy has shown some signs of improvement. Democrats are counting on the Reno area (which has become something of a tech hub), where new jobs have improved and new residents have been attracted, many from California. But with more than 70% of the state's population living in Clark County, which is home to Las Vegas, that region is likely to decide the state's election.

“In interviews with Las Vegas voters, the economy overshadowed all other issues. There was a sense of optimism among some, but they worried that they would not have enough money for the basics — rent, food, gas”, according to The New York Times.

“That aversion to seeking the spotlight has left Ms. Cortez Masto as essentially a generic Democrat in a midterm year when being yoked to Mr. Biden is a political hazard. A January poll from The Nevada Independent showed Mr. Biden’s approval rating in the state at just 41 percent”.

Democrats are also counting on further economic improvements in Las Vegas, which shows signs of recovery as casinos are packed.