The US government has estimated that, by the end of 2022, the number of Cubans arriving at the US-Mexico border could reach an all-time peak.

In March this year, the number of Cubans who crossed this border exceeded the arrival of people from Central American countries, according to internal data from Customs and Border Protection, published by NBC News.

According to the publication, by the end of March, an average of 1,200 Cubans had crossed the border in a week, that is, 460% compared to the same period last year. The rapid increase in the number of crossings across the border in Mexico can be illustrated by comparing the data for the month of February – when around 16,600 Cubans were detained – in relation to March, when the number reached the mark of 32,000 people.

Cuba is facing food and medicine shortages, as well as rising inflation, a situation exacerbated by the pandemic. This current situation was conducive to starting protests across the island, starting in July last year. The Cuban government blames the US for the increase in immigration and the context of material shortages, mainly due to the six-decade period of economic blockade, as well as the closing of the consular section of the Havana embassy, an important factor that would further encourage Cubans to seek alternative ways of leaving the country. To legally immigrate, Cubans must travel to Georgetown, Guyana, to apply for visas to enter the United States. The main outlines of relations between the US and the island are under analysis in the text available on our website.

The deputy director for affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Cuba, in the United States, Johana Tablada, accused the US policy towards Cuba as “inhuman, insensitive, dishonest, extremely cruel, and illegal”, according to NBC.

“Nicaragua, a close ally of Cuba, announced in November it would lift visa requirements for Cubans to promote commercial exchange, tourism, and humanitarian family relations. But the result has been an exodus of Cubans to Nicaragua so they can make their way to the Mexican border with the U.S.”, denounce the publication.

For Cubans, a desperate option in the face of material shortages is to try to cross between countries by sea in improvised boats or in inappropriate vessels. But most Cubans who manage to arrive alive by sea end up being returned to Cuba.

The current economic crisis, the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a close ally of Cuba, are “the perfect storm”. “All of these factors are pressing people to look for ways to leave, whether legally or illegally”, according to Jorge Duany, an anthropology professor at Florida International University who specializes in migration, to NBC News.