A new survey by The New York Times and Siena Colleges says that, despite the phenomenon of winning over Latino voters in the country almost two years ago in Donald Trump's reelection bid, the bets of a major realignment of Latino voters to the Republican Party positions on crime and social issues.

According to research published by The New YorkTimes, “The poll — one of the largest nonpartisan surveys of Latino voters since the 2020 election — found that Democrats had maintained a grip on the majority of Latino voters, driven in part by women and the belief that Democrats remained the party of the working class. Overall, Hispanic voters are more likely to agree with Democrats on many issues — immigration, gun policy, climate. They are also more likely to see Republicans as the party of the elite and as holding extreme views. And a majority of Hispanic voters, 56%, plans to vote for Democrats this fall, compared with 32% for Republicans”.

But the survey also shows worrying signs for the future of the Democratic message. Despite that comfortable lead, the poll finds Democrats faring far worse than they did in the years before the 2020 election. Younger male Hispanic voters, especially those in the South, appear to be drifting away from the party, a shift that is propelled by deep economic concerns. Weaknesses in the South and among rural voters could stand in the way of crucial wins in Texas and Florida in this year’s midterms.

“How Latinos will vote is a crucial question in the November elections and for the future of American politics. Hispanic voters are playing a pivotal role in the battle over control of Congress, making up a significant slice of voters — as high as 20% — in two of the states most likely to determine control of the Senate, Arizona and Nevada. Latinos also make up more than 20% of registered voters in more than a dozen highly competitive House races in California, Colorado, Florida and Texas, among other states”, according to the same publication.

While the majority of Hispanic voters side with the Democrats on social and cultural issues, sizable portions hold beliefs aligned with Republicans: more than a third of Hispanic voters say they agree most with the GOP on crime and policing, and 4 in every 10 Hispanic voters have concerns that the Democratic Party has gone too far on race and gender issues. Hispanic voters see economic issues as the most important factor in determining their vote this year and are evenly divided on which party they agree with most on the economy.

Republicans are faring better with Hispanic voters living in the South, a region that includes Florida and Texas, where Republicans won significant victories with Latino voters in recent elections. In the South, 46% of Latino voters say they plan to vote Democrat, while 45% say they plan to vote Republican. On the other hand, Democrats lead 62% to 24% among Hispanic voters in other parts of the country.

A generation gap can also lead to more Republican gains. Democrats, the poll found, were benefiting from particularly high support among older Latino voters. But 46% of voters under 30 are in favor of Republican handling of the economy, compared with 43% who are in favor of Democrats.

The survey still provides a snapshot of Latino voters who have traditionally supported Democrats in the past but plan to vote Republican in the upcoming election: They are disproportionately voters without college degrees who care more about the economy and are more likely to be young, of the male sex and born in the United States, but living in mostly Latino areas.

According to the study, the issue of immigration remains a key issue for Latino voters: “Democrats maintain a significant advantage on the issue of legal immigration, with 55% of Hispanic voters saying they agree with the party, compared with 29% who say they agree with Republicans. But the GOP has made inroads as it has stepped up anti-immigration rhetoric and policy: 37% of Latino voters favor Republicans’ views on illegal immigration. And roughly one-third support a wall along the U.S.- Mexico border”.

On other issues, the publication brings more important data: “The majority, 58%, has a favorable view of the Black Lives Matter movement, while 45% say the same about the Blue Lives Matter movement, which defends law enforcement personnel. A majority believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases; even among Republican Hispanics, 4 in 10 oppose the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. […] Asked whom they agreed with more on gun policy, 49% said Democrats, while 34% said Republicans”.

The survey results further demonstrate that Latino voters (nearly 6 out of 10) continue to view Democrats as the party of the working class, although white Republicans also uniformly view themselves as the party of the working class.

And there was no evidence in the survey that Republicans were performing better among Latinos without a college education or among those living in rural areas, two key demographic groups on which they focused their political tactics. One in four Hispanic voters in rural areas remains undecided about who to vote for in November.