The upcoming legislative elections of midpoint presidential term – the “Midterms” - are taking place November 8^th in the United States. 35 of the 100 Senate seats and all of the 435 Congress seats are being contested, in addition to runoffs in some of the States for Governors and some state legislative positions. As discussed on September 24^th in our Latino Observatory, traditionally, the midterm elections are won by the opposition of the president in office.

Unlike other countries with electoral runoffs in which the elector's votes may present great variation, the situation in the US is more stable, because certain states tend to vote massively in one of the parties. The country has a bipartisan system and the “Red States”, republicans, and the “Blue States”, democrats, with well-defined political preferences, built throughout history.

It is important to mention that the elections have already started, given that in many states the voting ballots are already being sent to electors by mail. However, only on November 8^th will they be reckoned.

Despite being predictable in most situations, there are certain districts that may define the domain in Congress. Since our analysis in September, the situation has worsened for the democrats. According to the website FiveThirtyEight, on September 24^th the democrat’s chance to control the senate was 70%. This week it’s down to 52%. For the House of Representatives, the republican’s chance to control has risen from 72% to 81%.

In order to follow US politics in the lenses of the Latino population, we will present the most important electoral races in the regions where the runoffs are very fierce and where there is a great presence of Latino population. Therefore, the dispute for the Nevada Senate seat and five disputes for seats in the House of Representatives in the districts of California, Texas, New Mexico and Colorado.

Nevada Senate

Catherine Cortez Masto, general attorney for the state of Nevada until 2016, was the first woman to be elected to the Senate seat for Nevada and the first Latino woman senator in the US. She is pursuing reelection this year for the democratic party. The candidate and current holder of the chair is losing in for less than 1% for the republican candidate Adam Laxalt, according to polls posted on the website FiveThirtyEight, Laxalt is an Iraq veteran and was also general attorney for Nevada. Senator Cortez Masto, because of her Mexican ancestry, is part of the Latino population that makes up 29.5% of the State of Nevada population. It’s worth mentioning that in Nevada, such as in other States, the topic of inflation is being explored in incisive ways by the republicans, who attribute the problem to the incapacity of Biden’s administration to face the issue. By the way, the approval rate of the current president is around 42%, similar to Trump’s rate with the same office time.

House of Representatives: California 22^nd (Fresno Region)

Rudy Salas, from the democratic party, competes with David Valadao for the chair of the House of Representatives for the 22^nd district of California. The district population is composed of 49.1% Latinos. Candidate Salas, part of this Latino population, has progressive proposals mostly related to health issues, like the limitation of prices for insulin medication, health service provision for the infected with the “Valley Fever” (Coccidioidomycosis, popular name referring to the San Joaquin Valley, California) and infrastructure for filtering water in the central valley region. The candidate also understands that the government shouldn’t interfere in women’s personal health choices, that they must act according to their own will, to the understanding of health professionals and to their own faith.

His opposition, candidate Valadao, republican, leads the electoral polls by 1.4%, being a near tie. Son of a Portuguese immigrant that entered the US during the 70’s, Valadao is the current congressman for the 21^st district, and had to change his electoral domicile due to the redistricting that withdrew two Californian seats. His issues are more directed to safety and the army but also mentions the water supply problem in the region. Mike Pence, United States vice-president during Donald Trump’s administration, has participated in electoral rallies this month in favor of Valadao.

House of representatives: Texas 15^th (McAllen – Rio Grande Valley region)

Monica De La Cruz, from the republican party, competes for the Texan 15^th district’s seat in Congress against Michelle Vallejo, democrat, with less than 1% difference in intentions in favor of the democrat. As we are talking about a border region, 82% of the population is of Mexican descent, as well as both candidates of the House seat for the district. Candidate De La Cruz, granddaughter of Mexican immigrants, represents the Latino population that takes pride in their experience and rise in lifestyle with the “American Dream” and is self-proclaimed to be a resilient independent woman that is proud to serve her country. She upholds the ultraconservative ideals that are characteristic of right-wing Texan politics. Among her proposals, there is the return of the “Remain in Mexico” policy, that returns to Mexico immigrants that have crossed the border in search for asylum and haven’t gotten their migrations legalized yet, a policy that was terminated by Biden’s administration. She also supports the completion of the wall on the Mexican border and Anti-China policies. Standing strong for the Second Amendment Rights (The right to bear arms), for the right to life and for the freedom of speech are also issues approached in her campaign.

Candidate Michelle Vallejo, democrat, uses more of her Latino image in her campaign, having “¡Vamos por Quince!” As her slogan, referencing the 15^th district. Her main issues relate to a high-quality affordable health care program, increase on the minimum wage to 15$, right to abortion, investments in university-level education, especially “Community Colleges” and treating immigrants with dignity and honoring their legal right to search for asylum inside US borders. Also references to police brutality, specifically mentioning the Jorge Gonzales Zuñiga case, Latino man that was killed by the police in one of the district cities in 2020.

House of representatives: Texas 34^th (Brownsville, Corpus Christi region – Rio Grande Valley)

The 34^th Texan congressional district was defined on the last redistricting. Mayra Flores, from the Republican party, is the current seat holder, as she won last June a special election against a democratic candidate. She has Trump’s, governor Greg Abbott’s and lots of funder’s support who aim to assure a republican win in a traditionally blue region.

Her opposition is also a congressman, the democrat Vicente Gonzales, current seat holder for the 15^th district, but has decided to run for reelection for the new Brownsville and Corpus Christi district, on the Rio Grande Valley. Gonzalez is part of a more conservative group of the democratic party, being against abortions. During the primaries, he faced a tight dispute with the progressive challenger Laura Cisneros.

The electoral race for the 34^th seat is quite fierce. According to ThirtyFiveEight, Gonzalez’ advantage in the traditionally democratic region is only 1.3% over the current holder Mayra Flores.

House of Representatives: New Mexico 2^nd (Southern part of the State)

Gabriel Vasquez, candidate by the democratic party for the 2^nd New Mexican district seat is losing by 2.5% on the voting intentions to Yvette Herrel, republican. The district’s population is 55.8% Latino population. Vasquez’ has issues relating to the conservation of New Mexico’s land and natural resources, investments in clean energy and the effort to hold climate change, but his main topic is the Immigration Reform, as even born in American ground, has lived on both sides of the border. He claims that it’s important for people like him to be in the House talking about immigration, and putting away the political game and really focusing on fixing the problem. Native American territory and women’s rights are also on his issues radar. Unlike the Texan dispute already brought up, Vasquez uses both his Latino image and his “American Dream” US identity.

Yvette Herrel, current holder of the second district seat in New Mexico and republican candidate for reelection, strongly supports the return of the Remain in Mexico policy. She advocates for landowners on the frontiers to be compensated by the government for damages caused by illegal immigrants and 'coyotes', among other initiatives related to border control. She accuses President Biden of weakening the armed forces and ending the sovereignty of the United States. She supports law projects that seek to protect law enforcement agents, such as “Defend our Defenders” and have guidelines to protect the right to bear arms.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: COLORADO 8th (North Denver Region)

Yadira Caravaeo, Democrat and daughter of Mexican Immigrants, is 5 points behind her opponent, Barbara Kirkmeyer, Republican. The district population is 39% Latino. Candidate Caravaeo has agendas linked to people without home, the cost of living and public transport, but she focuses mainly on public health. Yadira, a physician, believes that the pharmaceutical industry and health costs in the district make it difficult to provide attention, diagnoses and viable treatments for various illnesses. In addition, accounts for projects to control the abuse of medicines, illegal drugs and tobacco.

Barbara Kirkmeyer, the current state senator from Colorado, wins by a narrow margin in the surveys, using a conservative and “hard” image, something characteristic of the culture of the state. Unlike the high taxes that affect Colorado's economy, Barbara is responsible for the state laws that reduce taxes on several property categories. In addition, she says that she supports the application of the law in the state and insinuates that Caraveo puts first the offenders and lastly the victims.

The Latino Observatory will closely follow these five races for the House of Representatives and for the Senate seat in Nevada, as they will play a decisive role in controlling both chambers of the United States Congress in 2023, something that could make it even more non-viable the tools to be used in the maneuver of the Joe Biden’s Administration.