A recent poll conducted by BSP Research revealed that in the race for mayor of Chicago, moderate Democratic candidate Paul Vallas is preferred by Latino voters over progressive Democratic candidate Brandon Johnson. The poll found that Latino voters are more likely to vote for Vallas than black voters, and less likely to support Johnson than white voters. However, none of the candidates has the guaranteed preference of the Latino vote, as stated by Northwestern associate professor of instruction Jaime Domínguez.

According to the NBC News story, the race is currently tied, with each candidate receiving 40% of the votes and about 20% of voters still undecided. Johnson saw a significant increase in the number of undecided voters who had preference, gaining 7% with black voters and 12% with voters in the “everyone else” category. The issue of “race” has been a defining factor in the tight runoff election in one of the most segregated cities in the United States, with the racial divide becoming evident as early as the primary.

Survey results showed that more than 76% of Latinos said they are more likely to vote for a Latino candidate than a non-Latino running for the same office if they have the same qualifications. However, nearly three-quarters of Latinos and 71% of black voters said their community would be better off if blacks and Latinos work together. The poll also revealed that nearly half of Latino and half of black voters polled said they were not contacted to come out and vote, according to the same publication.

Stephen Nuño-Perez, an analyst and researcher at BSP Research, said efforts were still needed to reach low-income and minority voters, as these communities could influence the election. The survey was conducted with 1,500 people between March 15th and 23rd and has a margin of error of about 2.8%, although the margins of error are higher for each specific racial or ethnic group.

Black and Latino leaders have clashed in 2020 over redistribution, which could open a door for Vallas with Latino voters. However, Latinos who supported García may want to stick with a progressive candidate in the race, which is Johnson. The Mijente PAC, which supports Johnson in the race, said that with such a close race, they needed to get in there and work on the ground to mobilize Latino voters, especially in southwest Chicago, where García received support, according to NBC.

Although many Latino voters speak English, the latest census data shows that about 35% of Chicago households do not speak English at home. Spanish is the second most common language spoken in Chicago.

The way "race" is addressed by the two candidates differed greatly, with Johnson using the words "black" and "Latino" or "equity," while Vallas alludes to racial concepts using coded language that white conservatives use. Johnson's strategy so far has been to compare Vallas to former President Trump in hopes of winning support from progressive voters.

Despite the racial divisions in the mayoral race, the poll results suggest there is potential for cross-support between Latino and black voters. Both groups expressed a desire for greater collaboration and believed they shared common interests and concerns when it comes to government and politics. However, the survey also highlights the need for greater outreach and mobilization efforts targeting these communities, especially low-income voters who may not have been contacted to vote.

The mayoral race in Chicago has highlighted the racial divisions that have long characterized the city. Two candidates, Brandon Johnson and Paul Vallas, have seen their support fall largely along racial lines. Johnson, a progressive black man, secured the support of predominantly black neighborhoods, running alongside an education and police reform agenda. Vallas, a moderate white male and former CEO of the Chicago Public Schools, championed strict anti-crime policies and urged Chicago's middle-class and wealthier residents to "take back" the city.