Research released Wednesday (13) by the PewResearch Center showed that among US Latinos, Catholicism continues to decline but is still the largest professed faith. According to the survey: “In 2022, 43% of Hispanic adults identified as Catholic, down from 67% in 2010. Even so, Latinos remain about twice as likely to identify as Catholic than American adults in general and considerably less likely to be Protestants. Meanwhile, the share of Latinos who have no religious affiliation (describe themselves as atheists, agnostics, or “nothing in particular”) now stands at 30%, up from 10% in 2010 and 18% in 2013. The share of Latinos who have no religious affiliation is on par with American adults in general.”

The released research is very important, as it brings three very relevant pieces of information. First, it shows the decline of Catholicism among Latinos. Secondly, it shows that the tendency of Protestantism to advance ten years ago has not been confirmed. At that time, there was a strong rise of Protestant religions among the segment in detriment of Catholics. Third, the strong advance of people who consider themselves non-religious.

Regarding the second aspect, Elizabeth Dias wrote an article in 2013 for the Times Magazine in which she drew attention to the religious movement among Latinos. In the article “The Latino Reformation”, she highlighted the trend that more and more Latinos identify themselves as evangelicals and move away from Catholicism. In addition, according to her, the increase in this number would lead to greater support from this specific group for conservative issues more aligned with the Republican Party. In January 2022, we discussed this topic here at Latino Observatory.

In fact, in the 2020 and 2022 elections, it became noticeable how this change affected the Latino vote, since they were decisive in both elections, especially in key states such as Florida and Texas. So both parties, Democratic and Republican, are trying to find ways to garner political support from Latino evangelicals, a growing force in the United States.

To understand these actions of parties, it is necessary to understand the religious distribution among Latinos. In the first place, it is worth noting that today Latin America is a region strongly shaped by Catholicism due to Spanish and Portuguese colonization and which, facilitated by immigration, brought this characteristic to the USA. For this reason, most Hispanics in the United States identify as Catholic (43%). In addition, the data indicates that 21% of this group identifies as Protestant (Evangelical Protestants are 15% and non-Evangelical Protestants, 6%), in addition to 30% of Hispanics not being religiously affiliated. Few Hispanics (4%) identify with a non-Christian religion.

When comparing Hispanic adults today with their childhood religious affiliations, Catholic affiliation drops from 65% to 43% — tying in with the decline in Catholicism among Latinos. Protestant evangelical affiliation increased from 18% to 21% and those who claim to have no religious affiliation increased from 13% to 30%, a significant growth. This increase in non-affiliation is important as it impacts the youngest groups of Latinos, who are between 18 and 29 years old - about 80% of them born in the US. Overall, 49% of this group has no religious affiliation, which makes Latinos born in the country more likely to not identify with any faith (39%). About 40% of religiously affiliated Hispanics see religion as very important to them. Among the groups, evangelical Hispanics, who are the most concerned about religion, this percentage reaches 73%. Among Catholics, only 46% share this view.

Considering the greater demographic growth among Latinos, it appears that the change in attitude towards religion is greater among young people. While the number of Catholics continues to fall, the advance of the “non-affiliated” group is remarkable, according to a Pew Research survey. The same studies also reveal that this change tends to happen when people are younger, especially at the end of their youth. It is estimated that between the ages of 15 and 29, 31% of Americans who were raised as Christians fall away from the religion at some point. But it is important to emphasize that even with a loss of members, Catholicism still remains the main Christian strand among Latinos.

In this sense, among the factors that link the loss of influence of Catholicism and the increase in the weight of evangelicals, it is worth mentioning again the article by Elizabeth Dias for the Times Magazine. According to her, the evangelical churches have become a mean of assistance in the Latino community, a welcoming space that is not so common in Catholic temples. Furthermore, The Atlantic in a 2021 article showed the relative lack of connection between the Catholic Church and its Latino members makes part of the faithful seek more welcoming temples, such as those offered by evangelical churches.

The adoption of a new religion changes the political behavior of this specific part of the Latino community, since evangelicals have a more conservative view of reality. From this perspective, the Latino population tends to vote more because of the influence of their pastors and, when they go to the polls, they make their votes supposedly more aligned with what evangelical leaders call “God's plans". Such influence can be seen when observing the political action of the House of Lights church, an important evangelical denomination in California, which in 2022 launched its voting guide to help its members at the time of the election, indicating support for candidates with conservative tendencies. The Atlantic magazine also noted that the pastors of these churches are linked to the called “National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference,” a political organization that unites 40,000 churches whose main objective is to register people to vote according to the will of pastors.

It is worth noting that by party affiliation, 50% of evangelical Latinos consider themselves Republicans, while 44% say they are Democrats. Among Catholic Latinos, 72% are Democrats, compared to 21% whosay they are Republicans. That is, for the republicans it is interesting to win the vote of the evangelical Latinos and consolidate their base around this protestant group.

In this sense, pastor Samuel Rodriguez, president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, who is linked to Tony Perkins, leader of The Family Research Group Think-Tank, linked to the US extreme right and known for his hate speeches, assumes great political relevance. Perkins and Rodriguez were active voices at Republican conventions for many years and are seen as major conservative leaders and strongly aligned with former President Donald Trump.

It is interesting to note that for important figures in the Latino evangelical movement, such as Samuel Rodriguez, the recent Pew Research survey is disconnected from reality. In an interview with FoxNews Radio, he says he believes that the survey data are relative, given that the Hispanic community would still be following Christian religious precepts and that non-affiliation would need to be revised: “We are a fervent community of the Holy Spirit, loving Jesus, whether Catholic or Evangelical or keeping the faith. And we don't like the term 'affiliation'!" In addition, the reverend sees that the survey does not respond to some current facts, such as the support of Latinos for the re-election of Ron DeSantis as governor of Florida, a good part being composed of Catholic Christians, who would be Democrats in their majority according to the survey.

It is worth considering that the evangelical churches with democratic influence are in smaller numbers in relation to the republican ones, even if there are some examples of exceptions to the conservative trend — such as Rev. Doctor Elizabeth Rios, a pastor of Latino and black origin who has great influence on democratic and progressive agendas, and her Passion Center church is very frequented by Latinos and blacks. However, most Latino evangelical churches continue to be influenced by the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference.

Another interesting piece of data from the Pew Research Center survey is the fact that the number of white Christians showed a drop among Democrats. During the years 2006 and 2022, white Christians fell by almost 25% among Democrats and a slight decrease among Republicans, the latter with 7 out of 10 members being part of this group.

In short, the religious changes in US Latino groups that are taking place are of great importance for politics, as Latinos form a large group that can favor certain parties and agendas. For example, according to data from Pew Research, 60% of Hispanic Republicans say education is very important to their vote, compared to just 50% of non-Hispanic Republicans. The percentage is very similar when analyzing other controversial issues, such as violent crimes, abortion and gun policy. Among Democrats, the biggest difference between the positions of whites and non-whites comes from the issue of immigration: 47% of Hispanics say the issue is very important, but this figure drops to 30% among non-Hispanic voters.

The main Christian religious affiliations (Catholics, Protestants and Evangelicals) have different ways of voting and dealing with political issues, with participants from religions of Evangelical origin tending to vote conservatively and favor Republicans and the extreme right. However, both main parties look to the churches for support to ensure their political survival. In this race, evangelicals appear to be ahead, as the main leaders of Protestantism eagerly express their support for republican causes. However, it is important to consider that a growing portion of Latino youth is moving away from religious affiliations and this could be a significant political force that could bring about major changes in the United States.