The traffic of fentanyl, an extremely potent and lethal synthetic drug, has become one of the main challenges for the drug control policy in the United States in recent years. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the country, fentanyl is responsible for more than two-thirds of the more than 100,000 opioid overdose deaths recorded in 2022 — more than the wars in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Notably, nearly 14,000 pounds of fentanyl (over 6 tonnes) were seized between October and March 2022, nearly the total for the fiscal year for the period.

Most people convicted of fentanyl trafficking between 2018 and 2021 were US citizens, not Mexican or Latin American asylum seekers, as common sense assumes. US authorities claim that fentanyl sold in the United States is manufactured in Mexico with chemical precursors imported from China. Research published in “The Lancet” of the “Stanford–Lancet Commissiont” on the opioid epidemic in North America suggests that an additional 1.2 million people may die by 2029 from fentanyl overdose, whose lethality is 200% higher than that of heroin.

According to the US government, Mexican drug trafficking groups, mainly the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG), obtain fentanyl, analogues and precursors from China, and these are synthesized in Mexico. In some cases, they traffic fentanyl as an end product into the United States in an unadulterated form; in other cases they mix it with other substances and make it into pills. It is noteworthy that Mexican cartels predominantly hire US citizens to smuggle drugs across the border; as noted above, US citizens account for more than 85% of those convicted of fentanyl charges.

Opioids, such as fentanyl, are often hidden in the hidden compartments of vehicles driven by US citizens with US license plates. Still, according to the opinion published by the Brookings Institution, traffickers extensively hide fentanyl and other drugs within the legal cargo that enters the United States through legal ports of entry, which represents 90% of seizures. “A highly pernicious recent development is the establishment of pharmacies in Mexico, particularly in major international tourist areas, that sell drugs and other psychoactive substances with fentanyl and other prescription drugs without obtaining a prescription. Likely linked to major Mexican cartels, these pharmacies significantly increase the dangers of fentanyl trafficking, as well as heighten threats to global public health, safety, and the economy”.

Despite efforts to increase inspections at ports of entry, the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is only able to inspect some of the vehicles entering the country. New scanning technologies introduced at entry doors authorized by the Biden administration are intended to significantly increase the percentage of vehicles inspected. However, even with the old techniques, in just the first two months of the intensified campaign to stop the entry of fentanyl across the border, more than 10,000 pounds (over 4 tons) of the opioid were seized by CBP and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), when 284 people were arrested, according to a June release, about Operation Blue Lotus. Also according to DHS, the next phase of the strategy will seek to pursue high-ranking members of cartels that traffic in fentanyl, increasing the investigative apparatus and using forensic accounting to track cryptocurrencies used to buy precursor chemicals.

On the other hand, according to a report by drug trafficking specialist and senior member of the Brookings Institution, Vanda Felbab-Brown, the complex connections between the illegal drug trade, timber trade and wildlife species from Mexico to China, which are supposedly connected. According to her, Mexican cartels are involved in logging, fishing and other agricultural sectors, and are expanding their role to control the supply chain in various legal industries. In addition to extortion, these criminal groups dictate the amount of fishing allowed, control the sale of fish to restaurants, and even influence prices. They also force processing plants to issue false certificates of legal origin for export to the US and China, and even force fishermen to smuggle drugs.

Despite the US government's accusations, the Chinese embassy in Mexico has vehemently refuted that the chemical precursors used by the Mexican cartels to produce the opioid fentanyl come from China. According to Reuters, the embassy stated in a statement that China had measures in place to prevent trafficking in substances used to manufacture illegal drugs, and added that the US was "blindly shirking its responsibilities" by failing to take domestic action to address the problem.

It is important to consider that the connection between Mexican criminal groups and illegal trade is not limited to Mexico; they are expanding into illegal fishing outside the country, contributing to the drug trade. In this context, the Mexican government is criticized by the far right for its “hugs, not bullets” approach, which prioritizes socioeconomic programs to the detriment of security policies and law enforcement against criminal groups. The reorganization of Mexican security institutions under the López Obrador administration is also criticized, noting that the creation of the National Guard does not adequately replace the Federal Police in terms of investigative capabilities.

Another important aspect, according to the same analysis, is the deterioration of cooperation between Mexico and the United States in relation to efforts to combat drug trafficking. The researcher highlights how this lack of cooperation affects national and international security, and how the actions of the Mexican government, under the administration of López Obrador, have weakened joint anti-narcotics efforts. While consistently criticizing the Mexican government, the analysis notes the parallels between China and Mexico in terms of counter-narcotics cooperation with the US, claiming that Mexico's collaboration is being compromised. He asserts that the weakening of anti-narcotics cooperation is part of a general lack of security policy in the López Obrador administration, but that the situation goes beyond that. The situation is seen as a rejection of two-decade bilateral cooperation between the US and Mexico in shared responsibility for drug production, trafficking and consumption.

The López Obrador administration is also criticized by the Washington government for allegedly systematically weakening anti-narcotics collaboration since the beginning of its mandate, seeking to withdraw from the “Mérida Initiative” and limit collaboration to the elements that interest it. It also mentions how the arrest and subsequent release of the former Mexican Defense Secretary for cooperation with a Mexican drug cartel led to a threat to end cooperation with the US.

While there have been some recent improvements, such as the recognition that fentanyl is produced in Mexico, the Brookings analysis emphasizes that collaboration remains insufficient and that Mexico does not adequately share information about seizures and drug labs. Even when laboratories are dismantled, there are few significant consequences for traffickers, allowing them to recover quickly.

The Mexican government of López Obrador, for its part, claims that the number of laboratories has been decreasing. However, data analyzed by Reuters from documents found among a collection of millions of e-mails made public last year, which were kept by the Armed Forces, the numbers of apprehensions are far above those reported by the government. As reported by Reuters, the Mexican army, “in response to a freedom of information request in February, now claims to have seized 635 synthetic drug laboratories during 2019, 2020 and 2021 – the first three years of the López Obrador administration – above the 104 seizures it had previously reported for the same period.”

Overall, the possible decrease in cooperation between Mexico and the United States in law enforcement on these issues has weakened considerably during the López Obrador and Joe Biden administrations, having significant consequences for the fight against drug trafficking and related crime.

During planned talks between US and Mexican officials over the fentanyl crisis in March of this year, news spread of a kidnapping of four Americans in Mexico by members of a drug cartel. Two of the kidnapped were shot dead, while the others were quickly rescued by Mexican authorities with US assistance. Even after that incident, Biden administration officials were hoping to make some progress in the fentanyl crisis negotiations with Mexico. However, the president of Mexico intervened by issuing a public statement stating that fentanyl is America's problem, suggesting that the US was solely responsible, and even making statements that no dangerous drugs are produced in Mexico, blaming the crisis on overdose in the US for the “social decay” of American society.

In particular, US officials say that, in his comments on fentanyl, López Obrador was reacting to criticism from Republican lawmakers calling for military action against drug traffickers in Mexico, proposing to designate the drug cartels as terroristorganizations. In this regard, important Republican lawmakers have criticized the Biden administration for what they characterize as a “weak policy for the southern border”. They are pressing the White House to step up its efforts to combat fentanyl trafficking and have complained that the administration is not proactively keeping Congress informed of activities in that regard.

In response, the White House released a fact sheet describing how it is prioritizing the crackdown on fentanyl trafficking, disclosing that US authorities seized more than 26,000 pounds (nearly 12 tonnes) of fentanyl last year (2022) and that the US Department of the Treasury has sanctioned nearly 100 individuals and entities for their roles in the illicit drug trade. A spokesperson for the Drug Enforcement Administration has disclosed that the US is awaiting the extradition of 232 US defendants convicted of involvement with fentanyl in Mexico. The Biden administration has said it opposes the terrorism designation, but that it is not opposed to expanding legal authorities into Mexican territory to prosecute the cartels.

Dan Restrepo, former adviser to former President Barack Obama on Latin American affairs and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, spoke about the context in an interview with National Public Radio. He claims that there is no single culprit, the responsibility lies on both sides of the border. It is a fact that there are parties with a special interest in Mexico, and the US government needs to pay due attention to a tough but fair policy. He also stated that political conflicts cannot hinder good decision-making. For researcher Felbab-Brown, there is an urgent need for the United States to strengthen its measures to combat drug trafficking, especially fentanyl, and proposes a broader and more collaborative approach to confront the activities of Mexican drug cartels and other criminal groups. She emphasizes the importance of not only focusing on drug seizures close to the source, but also tackling other illicit and licit activities of criminal organizations.

In the aforementioned report, the researcher mentions that the Biden administration has already taken measures to intensify US police actions against fentanyl trafficking, such as “Operation Blue Lotus”, but argues that further intensifying these efforts is needed. She suggests that the approach should be expanded to tackle activities related to drug smuggling, such as poaching and wildlife trafficking, illegal logging and mining, and illegal fishing. It also highlights the importance of engaging a variety of US government agencies, including intelligence agencies, the Department of State, the Department of Defense and the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), for a coordinated and comprehensive approach. It also addresses the need for cooperation between the Chinese and Mexican governments, while acknowledging that such cooperation can be challenging in a complex geopolitical environment.

It is worth remembering that organized crime operates in various illicit activities, as has been recently seen in the Brazilian Amazon, where drug trafficking is confused with illegal gold mining, illegal fishing, illegal logging and human trafficking. In this respect, it seems that the tactic of attacking drug trafficking alone is insufficient to face this enormous challenge.