Recent projections released by the  U.S. Census Bureau on U.S. demographics show that Latinos/Hispanics currently make up about 19.1 percent of the U.S. population, and projections indicate that this number will increase to approximately 26.9 percent by 2060. Over the same time horizon, the non-Hispanic white population is projected to decrease from 58.9% to 44.9%.

The analysis covers changes in the components of population change over the past five years, incorporating data on births, deaths, and international migration. According  to Census Bureau demographer Sandra Johnson, these changes include increases in mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which are expected in the near term, and persistent declines in fertility over decades, which are likely to continue into the future, as reported by NBC News.

The Bureau has issued four sets of projections based on different scenarios, including the intermediate series (most likely), high immigration scenario, low immigration scenario, and a much less likely zero immigration scenario. All projections indicate that due to declining fertility and an aging population, the U.S. will have more deaths than births. Immigration is singled out as the biggest contributor to population growth.

In the high-immigration scenario, the U.S. population would reach 435 million by 2100. In the most likely projections, the population will peak at 370 million in 2080, then decline to 366 million in 2100. The low immigration scenario peaks at approximately 346 million in 2043 and declines thereafter, reaching 319 million in 2100.

The NBC publication underscores the relevance of these projections to understanding demographic changes and the factors influencing population growth in the U.S.