In the 2020 presidential election, career Democrat Joe Biden took the eleven electoral college votes in Arizona, a state located in the south of the United States. The race against former President Donald Trump was extremely close, with Biden winning 49.4% of the vote and Trump with 49%. In addition to this historic result, Arizona has been the scene of other important electoral changes, such as the victory of Democrat Katie Hobbs for the state governorship – a position she took in January 2023 – against Republican Kari Lake, a prominent Trump supporter, and the double defeat of Republican Martha McSally, a former substitute senator who failed to be elected in 2018 and 2020. In other words, the state that was once very favorable to John McCain and Republican leaders, can now be considered a “purple state”, which not only supports the Republican Party (GOP), but also important liberal figures for the American national scene? The answer lies in the changing landscape that Arizona has been going through in recent years, whether in politics or in its demographics.

Even if the 2020 election showed the new strength of the Democratic party in the state, it is not only because of it that transformations could already be noticed. In 2016, for example, Trump won the state with 49 percent of the vote, a few points above second-place Hillary Clinton, who won 45.5 percent of theelectorate. Although the Republicans were victorious against Clinton, it was possible to notice a greater tightening in the dispute with the advance of the Democrats in the presidential race. It is important to remember that in 2012, Mitt Romney emerged victorious with an advantage of approximately 10 points against Democrat Barack Obama in the state, and Republican John McCain, a senator admired by most voters, had an advantage of just over 8 points also against Obama in 2008.

Another interesting issue to be highlighted is that for the first time since 1952, Arizona has two non-Republican senators, Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly, and independent Kyrsten Sinema. In addition to showing a greater liberal mobilization, this composition of state representation in the U.S. Senate denotes how the perception of a “red state” is disappearing, even with a strong permanence of the Republicans there. In this way, the Arizona electorate, previously traditionally Republican, began to abandon this platform over the years, whether in presidential elections, or in local elections, with the proposals of the parties and, above all, through demographic changes. However, it is worth noting that these issues are not historically long-lived since, at other times in the past, it was possible to perceive different political positions coming from Arizona, such as the election of Bill Clinton in 1996, in which the then president won the electoral votes of that state in his reelection. 

Regarding the political parties in question, the Republican Party has a more conservative or conservative liberal political ideal. They have ideas such as the defense of private property, free markets and competition, and individual rights. They defend the “minimal” state and that the laws of the market and free competition regulate society. The Democratic Party, on the other hand, is characterized by progressive positions, aligned with the democratic left. It defends social welfare policies, state intervention in the economy and community and social responsibility. In addition, it understands the importance of the government’s more active role in economic issues with market regulations, aiming to improve the quality of life of the population.

It should be noted that Arizona is known for being a Republican state, with Joe Biden being the second Democratic president to win in that location.  Thus, we need to understand why this happened. From the outset, an important factor to be highlighted would be the growth of the Latino population, in which Trump's various anti-immigrant policies may have greatly affected this population. Another important factor is the migration of predominantly Democratic-leaning Californians to Arizona, who have brought their progressive ideals to the state. According to an article published in NewsWeek, about 143,000 California residents moved to Arizona between 2021 and 2022. There are several reasons that can complement the explanation of this phenomenon, such as lower cost of living, higher quality of education, job opportunities, among others. In the year 2020, 63.5% of the Californian population (about 11 million people) voted for Biden, according to CNN. It is understood that the aforementioned wave of migrations also affected the results of that year.

The Latino population is now one-third of Arizona's population, according to data from the Arizona Census Bureau Profile, which indicates that this group has a strong influence on election results. According to this information, in 2020, Latinos made up a population in the state of approximately 2.2 million people for a total of 7.2 million individuals in total, something around 30.6% of the state population. To better illustrate, in 2010, this ratio was about 1.8 million Latinos and Hispanics out of an absolute population of approximately 64 million, an increase of nearly 22.2% in a decade. In this way, going through the years and administrations in the White House, this population lived through the years of the Trump administration with its specific anti-immigrant policies. However, in addition to the former president's radicalism, other events have generated outrage and concern among Latinos. An example would be a 2010 bill, Arizona SB 1070, which intended to turn police officers into immigration agents in order to approach individuals based on their ethnicity.

Due to all these factors, it is notorious that the consequences would arrive in 2020. Joe Biden received more than 60% of the Latino vote in Arizona in the last presidential election. Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist  in Arizona, in a piece for The Washington Post, stated, “if there’s one thing Donald Trump has accomplished in recent years, it’s turning Arizona from a credible red state to a purple state”.

Considering this scenario of polarization and changes in the electorate, it is necessary to think of Arizona for the 2024 election as an unpredictable place, with no possible victorious candidate in sight. According to the latest presidential poll released by The New York Times, Trump leads in the state with a five-point lead over Biden, a situation that shows the fragility of the Democratic administration in the state. However, in other electoral areas, such as the Senate, Ruben Gallego, a likely Democratic candidate for the position, has been leading the race with advantages that exceed seven points, even considering an independent candidacy of Kyrsten Sinema. Therefore, the candidates who will define the election are not those selected by their parties, but those who will be chosen by the electorate, which also presents its own interests. In some polls, Joe Biden leads by minuscule margins against Trump in the state, however, if the election were against Nikki Haley, the former ambassador would beat the current president with a nine-point advantage. Therefore, it is necessary to take a careful look at the new “purple state” that is called Arizona, seen in all the unpredictability and competition that forms in this place in the south of the United States.