The Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics has released the results of a new survey that indicates a significant reduction in the voting intention of young voters in next year's presidential elections compared to 2020. The data reveal that, regardless of factors such as gender, ethnicity, political orientation or level of education, all categories showed a decrease in interest in participating in the electoral process.

Latino voters stood out with the most pronounced decline, registering a 16-percentage point drop in those who said they would “definitely” vote next year, from 56 percent to 40 percent. That decline is nearly 30 percent lower than four years ago, putting Latino voters as the second-least-interested group, behind only black voters.

As reported by Latin Times, the director of research at the Institute of Politics, John Della Volpe, expressed concern about the decrease in voting intention among young people, but stressed that there is still time to reverse the trend. He pointed out that Gen Z and young millennials want to see evidence that democracy works, that the government can face challenges, and that there are significant differences between the two parties.

The poll found that, overall, the amount of U.S. citizens who “definitely” plan to vote for president decreased from 57 percent to 49 percent. That could be unfavorable news for President Joe Biden, who currently has an 11-point lead over former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical showdown in 2024.

The drop in voting intention is steepest among Republicans, with a decrease from 66% to 56%, while Democrats show a drop of only two percentage points, from 68% to 66%. The poll also considered the introduction of third-party candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Joe Manchin and Cornel West, altering the scenario in a hypothetical showdown.

Overall, the survey highlights the importance of mobilizing young voters and suggests that low turnout in this age group could impact the chances of winning at the national level. The survey was conducted with 2,098 young people aged 18 to 29 between October 23 and November 6, with a margin of error of +/- 2.86%.