The new poll from USA Today  and Suffolk University, conducted Dec. 26-29 of last year, found that former President Trump is ahead of President Biden in this year’s election contest among demographic groups that were previously mostly Democratic base, such as Latino/Hispanic voters and among Democratic young voters.

Biden’s failure to solidify support in critical segments of the coalition that elected him in 2020 has resulted in a narrow disadvantage for Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee. In a head-to-head comparison, Trump leads 39 percent to Biden's 37 percent, with 17 percent expressing support for an unnamed third-party candidate. When seven candidates are specified by name, Trump’s lead extends to 3 percentage points, with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerging as the leading third-party candidate with 10 percent.

It is clear the great political challenge that Biden faces to secure a second term due to the large gap in the support of the American electorate in recent years. According to the poll, while some respondents acknowledged Biden’s reasonably solid work, the sense of disappointment at having “two old white people” in the race was evident among some Democrats surveyed.

“Support for Biden has declined significantly among Black voters, falling from 87% in 2020 to 63% now, according to the Roper Center. He also trails among Hispanic voters by 5 percentage points, a notable decline from his 2-to-1 lead over Trump in 2020. Among voters under the age of 35, where Biden led in 2020, Trump now leads 37% to 33%”, the publication reported.

The potential upside for Biden, revealed by the poll, is that much of the support he has lost appears to have shifted to third-party candidates, rather than directly to Trump. Approximately 20 percent of Hispanic and black voters, and 21 percent of youth voters, express an inclination to support someone other than the two leading candidates. Trump’s support among black voters remains at 12%, the same as in 2020. However, the poll indicates that one in five black voters is considering supporting a third-party candidate in the upcoming November election.

Another preponderant factor for the presidential elections, according to USA Today, is the great difficulty that Biden has been facing in increasing enthusiasm among his supporters, unlike Trump, who has been maintaining higher levels of enthusiasm among his base. In this sense, the perception of an economic improvement in the country among the population, revealed by the survey, may begin to change this picture. However, it is still too early for this positive perception to be translated into greater support for the current president.