The year 2024 will be the biggest election year in history. Worldwide, more than 2 billion voters in 50 countries will go to the polls, according to  the Center for American Progress, an independent, nonpartisan political institute in the United States. The United States, India and Mexico are among nearly eighty countries representing just over half of the world's population that will hold national elections in 2024. Never in history will such a large number of people around the world vote in the same year. 

According to the World Economic Forum, more than 160 million people in the U.S. are registered to vote for the 60th president, who will serve in the White House for four years, starting in January 2025. Current President Joe Biden hopes to secure a second term, while former President Donald Trump hopes to return to power. The next president could help define the future of various conflicts around the world, such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as solidify the country's role in its relations with allies and adversaries, such as China and Russia. In addition, it can guide issues that are clearly important domestically, such as the economy and immigration, and for humanity, such as the climate crisis and geopolitical disputes.

In this sense, a new study of the USA Today and Suffolk University, conducted between December 26 and 29 of last year, revealed that former President Trump is ahead of President Biden in this year's electoral contest among demographic groups that were previously mostly from the Democratic base, such as Latino/Hispanic voters and among the young population.

Biden's inability to solidify the support of critical segments of the broad coalition that elected him in 2020 has resulted, polls show, at a narrow disadvantage to Trump. In a head-to-head comparison, Trump leads 39 percent to Biden's 37 percent, with 17 percent expressing support for an unnamed third-party candidate. When seven candidates are specified by name, Trump's lead extends to 3 percentage points, with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerging as the leading third-party candidate with 10 percent, according to the poll.

Given the data presented, the great political challenge that Biden faces to secure a second term is more evident. According to the pollsters, while some respondents acknowledged Biden's reasonably solid work, one subjective aspect was evident among some Democrats interviewed: a sense of disappointment at having "two old white men" in the race.

Other references are related to the black American population. According to the poll's publication, "Support for Biden has declined significantly among Black voters, falling from 87% in 2020 to 63% now, according to the Roper Center. He also trails among Hispanic voters by 5 percentage points, a notable decline from his 2-to-1 leads over Trump in 2020. Among voters under the age of 35, where Biden led in 2020, Trump now leads 37% to 33%."

The potential upside for Biden, revealed by the poll, is that much of the support he has lost appears to have shifted to third-party candidates, rather than directly to Trump. Approximately 20 percent of Hispanic and black voters, and 21 percent of youth voters, express an inclination to support someone other than the two leading candidates. Trump's support among black voters remains at 12%, the same as in 2020. However, the poll indicates that one in five black voters is considering supporting a third-party candidate in the upcoming November election.

A preponderant issue pointed out by researchers about the challenges faced by the current president is the great difficulty that Biden has been facing in increasing enthusiasm among his supporters, unlike Trump, who has maintained higher levels of enthusiasm among his base. In this sense, the perception of an economic improvement in the country among the population, revealed by the survey, may begin to change this picture. However, it is still too early for this positive perception to be translated into greater support for the current president.

As for Donald Trump, his strong position in the race for the Republican Party nomination is highlighted, with the support of 62% of likely Republican voters in the primaries. The former president's legal challenges and controversies did not significantly affect his political support. Just the opposite on the Democratic side, as Biden’s candidacy is being affected by a possible erosion of his support base.

The president faces challenges such as dissatisfaction with inflation, concerns about the border, and a lack of enthusiasm for his policy achievements. According to a publication by the Semafor America platform based on interviews with prominent Hispanic leaders in the country, the Hispanic vote is continuously at stake, with Trump reducing margins, especially in swing states such as Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. These leaders represent organizations such as the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), the United States Hispanic Business Council (USHBC), the Hispanic Chamber of E-Commerce and the Florida State Hispanic Chamber of Commerce (FSHCC) that follow the main difficulties that the Hispanic community has faced in recent years and that may be directly influencing the loss of support of Democrats with this electorate.

According to these leaders, although the fear of a second Trump presidency and the concern about deportations are factors that still favor Biden among Hispanics (especially among women), there is a lack of a central message that appeals to this electorate, which is concerned about economic issues, such as inflation and the cost of living. Criticism is still directed at the administration's “Bidenomics” narrative, with Hispanic business leaders arguing that it does not reflect the real experiences of communities. They also highlighted the need to confront issues of cost of living, housing, and public safety to win the support of Hispanic voters.

The lack of an attractive, emphatic discourse that addresses the most urgent interests and needs of this population is pointed out as a challenge that the Biden administration needs to overcome. By contrast, the Republican Party is described as more aggressive in pursuing Hispanic candidates, challenging Democratic strongholds, and working to boost its scores in conservative areas. Trump’s campaign is seen as focused on the economy, something Biden's campaign needs to address to reverse the trend of drifting away, according to Latino leaders interviewed.

Also in the context of measuring the pulse of Latino public opinion about the 2024 presidential elections, the “Annual Hispanic Public Opinion Survey” sponsored by Adsmovil and published on the website of Florida International University (FIU), through the Latino Public Opinion Forum (LPOF), established by FIU's Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, presented relevant data. Data collection was conducted between November 18 and December 3, 2023, involving 1,221 randomly selected respondents from the 22 U.S. states with the highest Hispanic concentration. The sample size carries a margin of error of 2.8%. The predominant age range of the respondents was between 35-44 years (26.4%) and 25-34 (2.6%), who declared themselves women (49.4%) and men (50.0%), among other characteristics presented in the report.

The survey found that as a Hispanic/Latino, "Democrats" represent their values better (58.4%) compared to “Republicans” (24.1%). On the other hand, 12.9% of the sample answered that “none of the parties” represents them and 4.6% did not know or did not want to answer. When asked if they considered changing parties in the past year, 71.4% answered “no”, 19.4% “yes”, thought about the possibility, and 9.2% did not know or did not want to express an opinion. On the question of voting and the possibility of going to the polls in the next presidential elections, 73.8% answered “very likely” added to 15.8% who answered “probably” compared to 7.1% who answered as “unlikely” and 3.2% “very unlikely” to cast their vote.

Another important question in the survey related to Joe Biden’s re-election to the office of president, was directed to the approval or not of his work. In response, 25 percent of Latinos said they “approve” of his work, with 20.2 percent “not approving, but not disapproving” and 18.8 percent “strongly approving”. On the other hand, 19.6% “strongly disapprove” and 15.2% “disapprove” of the current president's work. Those who did not know or did not want to answer corresponded to 1.2% of the interviewees. 

Regarding the “inclination” of the electorate surveyed by USA Today and Suffolk University to support someone other than the two main candidates, it found resonance in the poll conducted only by FIU. According to the report, asked if Biden should run in 2024, 44.7% answered “no” 34.6% answered “yes”, 17.8% said “not sure” and 7.9% “don't know or didn’t answer”. The same question was asked in relation to Donald Trump and 57.2% answered that he should “not” run in 2024, 32.2% opined that “yes”, he should run, 8.7% said “not sure” and 1.9% “do not know or did not answer”. If the presidential elections were held today, 53.4% of Hispanics would vote for “Joe Biden” versus 33.2% who would vote for “Donald Trump”.

It is interesting to note that the survey revealed that 17.3% of respondents could not identify what the main threat to national security would be. On the other hand, 11.5% of them answered that it is open borders/uncontrolled immigrants, which is favorable to Trump’s anti-immigration policies. (External) terrorism/Middle East; Hamas; Islamists are listed as the main threat to the 10.2% of respondents, followed by 9.6% who consider the ongoing wars between countries with U.S. involvement to be the main threat to the country. Among the main problems faced, confirming the reports of the main leaders of Hispanic organizations in the U.S. and other opinion polls, the main problems faced by the country today, according to the Latino community interviewed, would be inflation/high prices/cost of living (19.8%), the economy/poverty (16.6%), immigration: border control/security (7.5%), followed by the theme of War/treatment of international conflicts/Foreign policy for 4.7% of respondents.   

Another survey that sought to reveal  key insights into the opinion of Hispanic voters in the United States, focusing on key states such as Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and the Rio Grande Valley, Texas, was conducted between November 6 and 12, 2023 by Cygnal (“The nation’s most accurate and fastest-growing private polling firm”). Among the main conclusions, the assessment of Joe Biden’s government stands out: 62% of Hispanic voters believe that the country is on the “wrong track”, against 32% who understand the opposite. The top priority for Hispanic voters, according to the poll, is “inflation and the economy” (36 percent overall), which emerges as the top issue for at least a third of Hispanic voters in each state surveyed. Hispanic voters in the four states surveyed tend to view the U.S. Border Patrol “favorably” (53 percent) versus 33 percent who view it “unfavorably”. Another 14% “did not express an opinion”. Sixty-three percent of Hispanic voters say the “American Dream” is “achievable” for them personally, compared with 31 percent who say it is an “unattainable” goal.

According to the report, with “less than a year from the 2024 election, Hispanic voters are open to the GOP and Trump: 41% would vote for Trump over Biden in a rematch of 2020, and 43% would vote for a non-Trump GOP nominee. Trump leads among Cuban Americans 58%-35%, while Biden holds a 54%-35% edge among Mexican Americans. Biden’s net image (-27) is worse among Hispanic Independents overall than Trump’s (-15)”.

The data reflects the complexity of Hispanic voters’ preferences, with a special focus on economic concerns and the perception of the Biden administration. Despite the current difficulties, Biden's team says it does not underestimate Hispanic voters by investing in targeted ads and programs aimed at this group. The emphasis on opposition to a second Trump presidency is touted as a  rallying point, while the campaign hopes to demystify polls that suggest a loss of support among Latinos.

Contrary to what some Democratic analysts believed, the increase in the Latino population in the U.S. did not necessarily translate into substantial gains for the Democratic Party, as demographics alone do not determine political outcomes. The crisis that began in 2007 had a significant impact on the various sectors of American society and, especially, on the organization of politics, leading to a reorganization of priorities and the emergence and adherence to political conservatism and the extreme right. The economic recession has contributed to the rise of some movements in this direction and the political landscape has witnessed the rise of Donald Trump. On the other hand, some progressive and left-wing movements in the United States in favor of civil rights have taken shape, exemplified by the emergence of Black Lives Matter in 2013 and the issue of reproductive rights, which came to the fore after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022.

The complexity of U.S. politics today stands out for the multiplicity of political and cultural currents that make it difficult to predict election results. A crucial aspect discussed in the text is the attitude of Latino voters. Notably, what stands out is the increase in Donald Trump’s favoritism over Joe Biden. For observers of U.S. politics, 2024 will be a year full of upheavals. The Latino Observatory will closely follow the main events of the electoral race.