Reaching unprecedented levels, migration in the Americas has highlighted not only as an urgent issue for the governments of countries directly affected by the increase in the flow of people, but also as a source of political disagreements, as can be observed mainly in the field of ideological disputes between the population and political parties in the United States. Although many migrants remain in Latin America and the Caribbean, there is a growing tendency for these masses to direct the global north, such as the United States, Canada and European countries in order to achieve better living conditions, fleeing very precarious realities, such as poverty, hunger, violence aggravated by the climate, political and economic crises.

The growing wave of migration reveals new ways found by the migrating population to enter the desired territories, as exemplified by Jordi Amaral for the Americas Migration Brief. According to the author, the Darién Gap, which connects Colombia and Panama, has become a dangerous crossing point, with more than 500,000 people crossing it so far this year, more than doubling last year's numbers. Every day there are more than 10,000 people trying to cross the border into the United States, according to the U.S. Border Patrol recently. The countries of the hemisphere have responded in different ways to this increasingly complex situation, whether by trying to expand free movement in the Caribbean, as is the case with the proposal presented by CARICOM, through programs to regularize migration and work that protect migrants, or even with policies to toughen approaches  with a focus on border security, as previously noted in another text, which reveals new forms of repression of immigration to the United States.

The current conjuncture, which presents the migration crisis as a central issue for the governments of the countries directly impacted by the phenomenon, may point to some trends – which are described in articles and specialized publications on the subject – that could play an important role in the migration scenario in the Western Hemisphere in 2024. In this sense, one of the aspects that we consider important is the electoral disputes, which stand out as a way of understanding the complex and evolving dynamics related to migration in the Americas in the medium and long term.

One factor that stands out is the growing political influence of expatriate Venezuelans in Latin America. Lautaro Grinspan’s article, published by NBC News focuses on this issue by highlighting the case of Argentina, where the far-right economist, Javier Milei, assumed the presidency. Milei's supporters, including Venezuelan immigrants, were instrumental in his victory.

The Venezuelan diaspora in the Americas is made up of millions of people who have left the country mainly due to the political and economic destabilization accentuated by the economic blockade imposed by the United States on Venezuela. The association of an authoritarian government with socialism increases the increasing participation of people in right-wing and far-right movements, which is reflected in several countries. In this way, the aforementioned publication highlights the political activism of the Venezuelan diaspora, which, although it still does not have the possibility to vote in many cases, is actively involved in political issues, especially through social networks. What is new is that many Venezuelan immigrants have been using online platforms to share their experiences, warn about the "dangers" of socialism and support right-wing candidates, as mentioned in the case of Argentina.

The thesis defended in this analysis, which can contribute to the understanding of the increase in Latin American engagement with conservatism and political reactionarism, suggests that the Venezuelan diaspora, having directly experienced the problems associated with socialism in their country of origin, is more likely to oppose leftist movements in the host countries. The mobilization of voters by politicians around similar rhetoric in relation to communism and governments considered socialist has been one of the electoral tactics encountered by politicians in several countries of the continent. In the United States, this dynamic has helped strengthen Latino support for Republicans in Florida. Even with the systematization of anti-immigration policies, right-wing politicians manage to garner support among the immigrant population. Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, won reelection in 2022 with 58% of the Latino vote, despite having chartered two flights carrying immigrants to Martha's Vineyard, which is home to  luxury resorts in the state of Massachusetts, in September 2022 (https://www.latinoobservatory.org/noticia.php?ID=310&lang=br). The immigrants were mostly Venezuelan.

According to the article published by NBC, Florida is also emblematic of the kind of political influence that long-established diasporas can wield, especially in foreign policy. For decades, Cuban-American voters and legislators have successfully influenced the “hardline” stance of Congress and various presidential administrations on U.S.-Cuba relations. “If it reaches similar levels of organization, the Venezuelan diaspora could help usher in a diplomatic isolation of the current Chavista regime”, Grinspan argues.

Another important factor that drives the increase in inequality and poverty and that directs the political-ideological orientation of the masses in multiple ways is the concentration of economic power. A recently published report by Oxfam International titled “Inequality Inc.”, highlights the significant widening of the gap between the world’s richest and poorest since 2020. The report reveals that the world's five richest men have doubled their fortunes in the past five years, while nearly five billion people around the world have become poorer over the same period. The report's key message highlights the relationship between the concentration of economic power in the hands of billionaires and rising global inequality. The vicious cycle created by this concentration of wealth involves billionaires accumulating political power to change the country's rules, which in turn grants them more privileges and a larger share of their companies' earnings. A Latin Times publication that analyzes the aforementioned Oxfam research points out that, “although none of the five richest men in the world is Latin American, the economic gap they have caused has greatly affected the region”. An interview with Carlos Brown Solá, director of research at Oxfam Mexico, sought to better detail this relationship. According to him, the direct and indirect influence of American billionaires on Latin American economies occurs through their companies or their political power and relationships with the governments of the region. One example cited by Solá is Elon Musk, who announced the construction of Tesla's largest factory in Mexico, influencing local government decisions in exchange for benefits for his company.

The consequences of this close relationship include the population's dependence on low-quality jobs, tax breaks for billionaires, a lack of resources to counterbalance environmental damage, and the power imbalance between billionaires and local governments. The interview highlights the discussion about nearshoring and investments by American companies in the region, with Elon Musk being a clear example of influence on government decisions and tax incentives. Despite the importance of understanding these schemes and their relationship with the increase in migration in Latin America, we will not deal here with a more in-depth analysis of a possible direct relationship between the concentration of economic power and the abandonment of large populations in their country of origin. As with the phenomenon of the climate crisis and the advance of organized crime, it is important to guide this type of analysis to reflect on other important issues, such as political regimes and the ideological and/or political-party orientation mentioned here.

In this complex scenario, it is notable that in recent years more than 7.5 million people have left Venezuela, triggering the most serious migration crisis in the modern history of Latin America, according to data presented by the UNHCR (UN Refugee Agencies).  The adherence to the discourses of the extreme right by these Venezuelan immigrants, who stand for human rights and social justice, has been gaining momentum throughout Latin America, according to Grinspan’s analysis.

In addition to the Venezuelan population in the United States, there is a significant trend of conservatism among multicultural American appointees. The “Multicultural Demographics  2024” study conducted by Collage Group highlighted significant trends among multicultural Americans, a demographic that has grown to nearly 4 million since 2021. The report addresses topics such as access to education, representation in the workforce, and purchasing power. However, one important statistic concerns the political identification of Latinos. The study reveals that 30% of Latinos identify as conservative, making them the largest conservative demographic, behind only whites. This coincides with recent polls showing a decline in Latino support for Joe Biden, with 39% preferring Donald Trump, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll in January. In 2020, Biden received 65% of Latino support.

Despite the rise of conservatism, a majority of Latinos still identify as liberal (34 percent), while 16 percent consider themselves centrist and 21 percent feel the issue does not apply to them. Other ethnic groups, such as blacks and Asians, have a predominantly liberal political identification. The study also highlights the concentration of the Latino population in the southwestern United States, especially in key states such as Arizona, a state contested in the 2020 election. California has the highest number of eligible Latino voters, followed by Texas, Florida, New York and Arizona. The shift in Latinos' political views could have significant implications in the upcoming elections, considering they are the largest multicultural group in the United States, projected to represent 14.7% of voters with voting power in 2024, according to the Pew Research Center survey.

While the focus is on the Venezuelan diaspora, it is important to note that this group is not homogeneous and there are divergences of political opinions within the community. Some members are more cautious about approaching politics, especially in Venezuelan enclaves where there is resistance to more liberal views. Even so, it is a fact that immigration, despite the analytical complexity surrounding the issue, seems to play an important role in the anti-immigrant discourse that is gaining more and more strength in the United States and in European countries, with the consequent reinvigoration of nationalist and far-right movements.

The liberal and progressive currents of the Democratic wing in the United States have been looking for ways to gain the support and representativeness of the Latino community to reverse this trend, addressing issues that are important to this electorate. Tactics to reach out to its base of Latino youth and the Latino population in the United States in general have been used mainly in the current political conjuncture, in which the loss of support from this electorate has been increasing.

In the Latino Observatory weekly publications, we seek to report on some of these Democratic bets in this intent, while the theme of migration has been central in the moments leading up to the country's new electoral cycle.