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US elections in 2024: implications for relations between Latin America and China

Felipe Silva Alves | 21/06/2024 21:03 | Analyses
IMG Phil Roeder from Des Moines, IA, USA

In November 2024, the United States of America (USA) will once again experience electoral suffrage to choose the country's forty-seventh president. The current situation demonstrates a continuity in the State's foreign policy towards Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), followed by Democrats and Republicans, where there is no strategy that prioritizes issues that go beyond immigration and drug trafficking. In contrast, there is an intensification of relations between China and LAC countries, constituting a panorama of greater opportunities for cooperation between Latin American and Caribbean countries in the trade, investment and finance sectors.


The November election will be contested by the Democratic candidate Joe Biden, trying to remain president, and the Republican candidate Donald Trump, a former president trying for a second term. Research shows a fierce dispute between them, illustrating a great division in North American society, in which various topics such as economic policy, immigration, abortion, legal processes and the country's international positioning in the face of current conflicts in the world, guide the ideological disputes that intensify competition.


However, an issue that reconciles opinions between both candidates and voters is the national position regarding China's international rise and how the US should deal with this fact. Despite the long history of cooperation that began in the 1970s, whether commercial or diplomatic, between China and the United States, the last decade has seen a drastic change in this relationship. As Júnior points out, the US State Department stipulated a combative approach to the growing Chinese relevance in the global system since 2012, in the second term of the then Democratic president, Barack Obama. This fact resulted in a notable inflection point in 2017, with the first term of Donald Trump, and the beginning of his Trade War against China. In 2020, with the entry of the Biden administration, even though there were expectations of changes in the national foreign policy agenda, the scenario unfolded in reverse, exposing continuities in his predecessor's political agendas and speeches. Thus, placing in parallel the foreign policies of the Trump administration and the Biden administration, in relation to their approach to China, the combative similarities become explicit. Because of this, whatever the result of the November election is, there are no prospects for structural changes on the horizon.


Another point of similarity between Trump and Biden's foreign policy agendas concerns Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In Trump's order, as la Fuente'sanalysis demonstrates, the region was not considered strategic, in addition to being focused on areas of unilateral US interest, such as regional security issues, immigration control and reviews of trade agreements, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement. The Biden administration, despite having expressed positive expectations for Latin countries, these did not materialize. This is due to the fact that agendas of unilateral interest remained, such as regional security issues, the fight against drug trafficking and immigration control, demonstrating that there has not been, since 2017, a strategically organized foreign policy for US – ALC.


On the other hand, recent years have demonstrated a deepening of relations between Latin-Caribbean countries and China. Instead of simple consumer markets and sources of important raw materials, the region qualifies as an important strategic partnership in the development of political and economic agendas for both actors, in addition to sharing common challenges, such as tackling climate change and sustainable development. Thus, it is possible to observe a different approach from the USA, in which Beijing demonstrates organized planning of cooperation plans based on the development of infrastructure and investments through initiatives, such as the New Silk Road, increased commercial cooperation, especially in the automobile sector, in the generation of clean energy, and in the institutionalization of diplomatic relations – President Xi Jinping celebrates the tenth anniversary of China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States cooperation.


Therefore, when comparing the cooperation approaches between the United States and China in relation to Latin America and the Caribbean, it is clear that there are better perspectives and opportunities in relationships with Asia. The Chinese approach is marked by investments to promote development, economic cooperation aimed at mutual benefit and strengthening diplomatic and institutional channels, a stance contrasted by the unilateralism expressed in recent years by North American foreign policy towards the region. Furthermore, it is important to highlight that the opportunities and positive perspectives with China do not symbolize the need for total alignment with the country, requiring high-level political skill to reconcile the region's strategic national interests with Chinese and American interests, ensuring stability and commitment to regional economic development.


Therefore, the US elections in November 2024 will be an important moment for the country, as well as for the Latin Caribbean region. Given the behavior of the United States and China in recent years, it is essential that LAC countries and their governments analyze the medium and long-term cooperation scenarios, considering the best opportunities for promoting regional interests through international cooperation. Latin America and the Caribbean, due to its geographic position and many affinities with the United States, must organize its international policy so as not to fall into the Cold War dichotomy and work with the governments of Washington and Beijing with a view to development of our populations.

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