According to an article published by the Center for Global Development, there is a strong correlation between the number of jobs available per unemployed person and border encounters reported by Customs and Border Protection (CBP). This relationship suggests that pull factors, such as the availability of jobs in the United States, are significant determinants of the number of crossings at the country's southwest border.

This finding challenges the political narrative that focuses on reducing immigration through more aggressive enforcement at the U.S.-Mexico border. Dany Bahar, the economist responsible for the study, points out that migration in the Western Hemisphere has reached a record 2 million people per year, with no major events in the hemisphere to explain this increase, except for the U.S. labor market.

The study demonstrates that while some countries such as Venezuela, Cuba, and Haiti face persistent economic problems, most of Latin America has returned to pre-pandemic levels of unemployment and GDP per capita. Bahar acknowledges that push factors, such as the crisis in Venezuela, continue to influence migration, but the long-term trend is dominated by pull factors in the United States.

The correlation between labor market rigidity and immigration has been consistent over the past 25 years, regardless of the political party in power in the U.S. However, this correlation has become more evident since the pandemic. Bahar notes that even during the Trump years, when there was an overall reduction in crossings, the relationship between migration and labor market rigidity remained positive.

In summary, the study suggests that the availability of jobs in the U.S. is a key factor for migration flows, more so than political or economic events in Latin America.