In 2024, young Latino voters will be a key part of the electorate that will decide the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. According to Circle estimates, of the eight million young people who started voting in 2022, two million were young Latinos. Furthermore, regions of the country have more and more Latinos as new voters, such as in the south, where this group comprises 24% of new voters, and in the northeast, where this percentage reaches 19%. However, in the current American political scenario, between international conflicts and internal problems, many young voters are showing some lack of motivation to vote on election day, with many seeing Biden and Trump as similar options. So, how does this dynamic occur and how will candidates be impacted?

Before continuing in this demotivated environment, it is important to understand how young Latino voters behave in American elections, which commonly favor the Democratic party. According to a survey by the Harvard Youth Poll, Joe Biden has 50% of the support of this group against 27% of Trump's intentions. This denotes a rapprochement between this group and the Democrats and, in a certain way, should reflect their interests in United States politics. Hispanics in general also have this rapprochement with Democrats, and in the last two elections, Joe Biden won 66% of the Latino votes and Hillary Clinton, defeated by Trump, won 65% of the votes. However, as already expressed in the data, the Biden government faced difficult times that, in a way, alienated many Latinos from its electoral base, an example of the measures on immigration adopted by the White House recently. As a result, a survey conducted this year showed Trump leading Latino voting intentions with a six-point lead over the current president, a situation that directly impacts younger voters.

For this year's election, several issues are in the perspective of young Latino voters, such as the war between Israel and Hamas and rising house prices, for example. The Biden government's involvement in these conflicts, in addition to a certain interference in price increases, even with the approval of several institutional acts, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which would have this objective but is something not noticed by the American population.

According to Marcel Lopez, a 20-year-old young man and one of several interviewed by NBC News in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, the wars in which the United States is involved are points to be analyzed for him. The War in Ukraine, starting in 2022, would be an “unwinnable war” according to him, who is dissatisfied with the amounts sent by the American government to the European country. In addition to this point, the survey highlighted that the increase in property values ​​is one of the main concerns of this electorate, a situation that has been increasing in the country in recent years.

As of September 2023, for example, the median value of an average home in the United States is $412,000. To give you an idea, in 2020, this same value was around US$230,000, according to research by Zillow Data. Furthermore, the values ​​change profoundly if we compare the country's states, such as California, one of the most attractive states for the young population but which has an average property value of US$787,000, priced three times the national average. At the same time, the cost of living in the country is sky-high, with housing, food and fuel generating a widespread price increase in the country. In April this year, considering a 12-month interval, prices increased by 3.5%, a negative context for the young population.

This context that tarnishes Biden's presidency, involving unpopular conflicts among young people, inflation and contradictory policies on immigration make the president fragile in the face of Donald Trump's candidacy. According to a survey carried out by CNN, 68% of young Americans consider the current White House administration to be a “failure”, precisely because of Biden's lack of connection with important issues for this electorate, such as student debt. However, Trump is not in good condition either, considering that 62% of the young electorate, who are between 18 and 34 years old, are not satisfied with the candidate's choice for the 2024 election.

It is important to emphasize that the White House has been trying to get closer to young voters, even if with actions that do not result in positive results. For example, since the beginning of his presidency, Biden has sought to reduce the country's student debt, an example of which is his plan called the Biden-Harris Administration’s Student DebtRelief Plan. However, the United States Supreme Court blocked the federal government's planned $400 billion reduction in student debt in 2023, which frustrated the president but did not stop him from canceling smaller portions of the debt that do not bring a very visible insight into the White House's actions regarding the topic. Furthermore, positions in favor of abortion and harsher criticism of Israel's actions in the war against Hamas stand out, but without very significant changes in the federal government's positions on these topics. Even with this attempt at rapprochement, even with Biden's campaign joining Tik Tok, a social network banned in the United States for national security reasons, aiming for more engagement with young voters, there is still a need for a more incisive change in the president's attitude to win back this electorate.

In other words, like the rest of the young electorate, young Latino voters find themselves in this scenario in which two unpopular candidates compete for a four-year term in a country that has been going through very strong economic, political and social changes. Even with the greatest support from this electorate, Biden's actions over the last three years have alienated this audience from his campaign, exemplified by his support for Israel, inaction on student debt and abortion, and inability to reduce living costs. At the same time, even though it is natural for the opposition candidate to be more favored in the polls than the incumbent president, Donald Trump has been presenting extremist positions on several important issues for young people and the successive legal processes have affected his image for the race. Therefore, the scenario is uncertain as to what the support of young Latino voters will be like, even with part of this electorate favoring the current president. Therefore, it is important to follow the dispute closely to understand the entire dynamics, as the next few months will be fundamental for the result in November.