Former President Donald Trump's proposal to implement a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants to the United States, a promise he has repeated since his 2016 campaign, could ruin the country, according to surveys that collect data on the economic and labor contribution of immigrants.
During his first term, Trump promised to deport the 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the country. Once in the White House, he adopted strict policies, such as carrying out raids on workplaces, banning the entry of travelers from Muslim-majority countries and the controversial separation of migrant families at the border, a practice that generated harsh criticism and whose consequences are still felt, with many families still separated.
Despite these drastic measures, Trump has failed to deliver on his promises of large-scale deportation, largely due to resistance from different sectors of society, including sanctuary policies, legal protections, and ineptitude in enforcing his orders. In total, he deported fewer than 1 million people during his first four years in office, a significantly lower number compared to deportations carried out by the Barack Obama administration in the same period, according to data collected by Mother Jones.
Now, Trump plans to double down if he is re-elected, promising to conduct "the largest domestic deportation operation in American history." Among the most serious economic consequences is the prediction of a severe shortage of low-income workers, who are essential for sectors such as agriculture, construction and health services.
In addition, experts cited by the publication predict an immediate contraction of GDP by 1.4%, which could reach 2.6% in the long term, with the US economy shrinking by almost 6% over 20 years, resulting in a loss of $1.6 trillion. These projections contradict Trump's assertion that mass deportation would benefit American workers, with economists pointing out that, in fact, the removal of undocumented immigrants from the workforce could lead to the loss of nearly 1 million jobs for American citizens.
The impact on construction would be equally severe, as more than 10% of the sector's workforce is made up of undocumented immigrants. Mass deportation would stall new housing construction projects, exacerbating the affordability crisis in the housing market and driving up construction costs.
In addition to the economic effects, the humanitarian consequences of Trump's proposal would be disastrous. Family separation would be one of the cruelest practices, with millions of people, including U.S. citizens and legal residents, being directly affected. Households in mixed-status households would suffer huge financial losses, with median incomes being cut in half, which could plunge millions of households into poverty.
Even if Trump's plan is not fully implemented, just trying to use it as a political platform would have profound and lasting consequences for American society. Trump's proposal is portrayed by the article as an existential threat to the very social and economic structure of the United States.