On September 10, 2024, the American broadcaster ABC News held the United States presidential debate, starring current Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat) and former President Donald Trump (Republican). The event took place in a heated manner, and, amid mismatched speeches and evasion of questions, both candidates were able to present their plans in the race for the White House.

The debate dealt with several topics such as the economy, women's rights, the invasion of the Capitol in 2021 and foreign policy, generating moments of reflection for the Latino viewer, both politically and ideologically. However, the questions asked by ABC News anchors almost always ended up in the discussion about immigration in the country, both in Trump's evasive maneuvers to some questions, and in Harris's attempts to warn the population about her competitor's ideology. This raises the question: for the Latin people who will go to the polls on November 5, what should be the expectation for the years to come?

Before highlighting the debate, it is important to highlight the Latin context in the American electoral conjuncture, which, in past elections, favored the Democratic side. With a record increase in the number of Latino voters in the United States, a growth of 153%, Latino voters now make up 15% of the American electorate. However, what would normally be a bright spot for the Democratic party has become a risk factor. This is because, in recent years, Latino voting intentions have increasingly explored the Republican side. Even with the increase in Latino voting intention in the Republican party, polls still point to Harris as the favorite among Latinos in the United States, a factor that could change by Election Day.

Kamala Harris opened the debate with a convincing answer on the topic of the economy and the cost of living in the United States. The candidate, who may be the first woman to win the US elections, brought to the debate her plan to transform the economy into an "opportunity economy", which would bring middle-class workers and micro-enterprises a significant reduction in taxes. Harris also questioned Trump's economic project, which aimed to reduce taxes for millionaires, and could increase the cost of living for the population by up to 4 thousand dollars per year. In addition, the candidate discussed abortion and women's rights, in addition to answering questions about the invasion of the Capitol in 2021, demonstrating an assertive stance and reiterating her support for freedom, even in the midst of Trump's pronouncements, which, according to her, made use of lies and accusations. The Democrat also stated, in the topic of the invasion of the Capitol in January 2021, that then-President Donald Trump had incited and fomented the rebellion purely by not accepting his defeat in the elections.

Harris also defended herself against accusations made by Trump against her and her party, especially in the field of foreign policy. The former president harshly criticized the actions of the current vice president in her administration, questioning her government plan and attributing responsibility for conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, to what he called the "incompetence and weakness of the Biden administration". Still on the topic of foreign conflicts, Donald Trump said that the Israel-Palestine conflict would not exist if he were president and accused Harris of "hating Arabs".

On the other hand, at the beginning of the first round of the debate, Donald Trump addressed the subject that would be discussed throughout the event – the wave of immigration. Trump has made several ideological statements that are worrying for the Latin people on the subject, blaming the decline of the American economy for the fact that, according to him, "millions of immigrants invade the country every month."

Officially on the topic of immigration, Harris began the discussion by saying that she’d spared no effort to prosecute transnational criminal organizations involved in the trafficking of weapons, drugs and human beings, and accused Trump of not putting the American citizen as a priority. In addition, she said she had supported a border security bill with 1,500 officers and that it would invest in more manpower to strengthen security, helping to contain the flow of fentanyl entering the United States. In this sense, she accused her opponent of having used connections in Congress to prevent the approval of the bill.

Trump changed the course of the debate by accusing, again, Democrats of letting millions of people into American cities and cited Springfield, where, allegedly, immigrants would be eating domestic animals, such as citizens' dogs and cats. He said that if Kamala were elected president, the U.S. would end up like Venezuela. When confronted by the presenters – since FBI data shows that crime in the US is down – Trump dodged, claiming that the institution lies for ideological purposes. Harris, faced with the placements on the same topic, remained stable in the face of Trump's accusations, and countered by insinuating that the candidate is not managing to maintain support within his own party, in addition to having "been fired" in the last elections in the country.

Therefore, when analyzing the debate, Donald Trump's most radical positions stand out when dealing with most of the topics, adopting a more defensive posture when questioned in the various topics addressed. The former president sought in his past proposals strengths and arguments to be reelected in 2025, repeating the slogan "Make America Great Again" several times, as in previous years. During his time of speech, Trump also tried to delegitimize Kamala Harris' government project, repeatedly comparing her to Joe Biden, for provocative purposes, but heard as a response from the Democrat: "I'm not Joe Biden and I'm certainly not Donald Trump", and that "the American people need to turn the page". Harris knew how to make good use of her chances to speak in the debate, expressing herself in a calm and viewer-oriented way. She made evident her concern about the cost of living for America's middle and working class, which is largely made up of Latinos. In addition, the current vice president has committed to organizing a health system that prioritizes the less privileged.

Although Latino people were not directly mentioned in the debate, the candidates' thoughts on national policies that might favor this community were implicit. From this analysis, it is possible to draw two scenarios for the outcome of the 2024 US elections.

First, Kamala Harris, who presented her proposals prioritizing the lower classes and small businesses, in addition to approaching the young electorate with positions on the environmental agenda and the crisis in the Middle East, popular issues among the new generations. In this context, the history of Latino voting in the Democratic party seems to be a favorable option, since the current vice president's political proposal emphasized points of interest to the Latino community.

Second, Donald Trump did not present his proposals objectively, deviating from the questions asked by the presenters and focusing on more ideological debates. The candidate also maintained his positions in an expansive way when confronting his opponent and accused immigrants of being responsible for American decadence. In this sense, the former president seeks to win over different Latino communities through speeches based on the "fear of communism", and the fact that young people, especially Latinos, identify with the Republican candidate due to his appeal to masculinity. From this point of view, voting for the Republican candidate would mean the return of the United States to the hostile and xenophobic environment of 2016, with anti-immigration policies and a lack of investment in the development of sectors that encompass the Latino community.