An analysis by the Cato Institute revealed a complex picture of the effectiveness and contradictions of the immigration policies implemented by Donald Trump during his term, questioning whether these policies have actually provided greater public safety, as he claims.

Trump has built much of his political discourse around the promise of "security" with the proposal for strict control over immigration and the mass deportation of non-citizens, many of whom have criminal histories. However, data provided by the Cato Institute, obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, indicates that these policies have had unintended negative impacts, including the increase in illegal entries by criminals and the release of people with serious convictions.

First, the promise of public safety with mass deportation is belied by studies showing that immigrants, both legal and undocumented, tend to commit fewer crimes than native-born citizens. The data reveal that mass deportation, in addition to being costly, is counterproductive, as it removes from the country individuals who, statistically, are less likely to commit crimes, weakening the security of several communities. Research and studies by the Cato Institute itself indicate that the presence of immigrants in communities is associated with lower rates of violent crime, such as homicides, and lower rates of drug-related problems. Instead, a policy that prioritizes high-risk criminals would bring more benefits to public safety.

Second, the Trump administration, according to the report, has failed to maintain its focus on deporting convicted felons. In the early days of his administration, Trump repealed Obama-era guidelines that directed law enforcement to prioritize the arrest and deportation of immigrants who were threats to public safety. This change resulted in the use of resources to detain asylum seekers and separate families, significantly reducing the priority given to immigrants with serious criminal records. During the height of family separation, Trump shifted the focus from deportations of criminals to the detention of migrants with administrative issues, such as expired visas, leaving thousands of serious criminals free in the country.

In one specific example, data shows that during the Trump administration, nearly 58,184 noncitizens with criminal records were released, including 8,620 violent criminals and 306 murderers. The immigration agency, ICE, reported an increase in cases of noncitizens with repeat crimes due to flaws in the enforcement process.

Another point highlighted in the analysis is the effect of mass deportation policies on the effectiveness of border control itself. The lack of prioritization of serious criminals caused a series of failures in the system that encouraged the entry of repeat offenders. Trump's policies have made it easier for criminals to return to the country after failed entry attempts, with FOIA data showing a tripling of illegal crossings by convicted felons during his tenure. The Justice Department warned that the over-crackdown on asylum seekers has allowed more criminals to evade detection. These actions culminated in a record increase in border evasions in 2020.

Finally, the report compares Trump's performance with Biden's, noting that the current administration has placed more emphasis on the arrest and deportation of serious criminals, including convicted criminals. In 2024, the monthly average of criminal removals by ICE was higher than Trump's record in December 2020. While Trump sought mass deportations, Biden focused on selective removals of serious criminals, an approach considered more effective for public safety.

The document concludes that by focusing on the indiscriminate deportation of immigrants, Trump has deprioritized real security in favor of a rhetoric of absolute control. An immigration policy that prioritizes serious criminals while keeping peaceful immigrants would bring greater benefits to society. In addition, the report suggests that the expansion of legal immigration can assist in border security, allowing resources to be allocated to catch and prosecute serious criminals, while welcoming immigrants who contribute to the economy and the security of communities.