A publication by the organization Stateline examined Donald Trump's proposals for a stricter immigration policy, focusing on his plan to carry out a mass deportation program, which he described as “the largest in American history”, if he were re-elected. The analysis includes the political, legal, economic and social implications of such an approach, as well as the practical feasibility of its implementation.

Trump's proposals

Trump plans to federalize the National Guard, mobilize military troops and build detention centers to speed up the deportation process. He also proposes repealing programs such as DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) and TPS (Temporary Protected Status), which currently protect hundreds of thousands of immigrants from deportation. In addition, he seeks to enforce the Foreign Enemies Act of 1798 to deport immigrants with criminal records and pressure states and sanctuary cities to cooperate with federal authorities.

Federal and State Collaboration

Experts say the success of these policies depends on the collaboration of states and cities, especially since many of them, such as so-called sanctuaries, limit or refuse support for ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement). State laws against unauthorized immigration, adopted in states such as Arizona, Texas and Florida, face constitutional challenges, while sanctuary cities continue to resist. Still, Trump is considering withholding federal funds from jurisdictions that do not cooperate.

Legal and Logistical Challenges

Deporting about 1 million people a year would require $88 billion annually, according to estimates by the American ImmigrationCouncil. These costs would involve expansion of immigration courts, enforcement agents, and detention facilities. In addition, some nations refuse to accept their deported citizens, and internal bureaucracy in the U.S. can make the process difficult. According to the analysis, experts suggest that, with experience gained in the first term, a new Trump administration may be more effective in overcoming such obstacles.

Economic and Social Impacts

The policy of mass deportation would have significant implications, such as labor shortages, reduced tax contributions, and an impact on the agricultural and service sector, where many immigrants work; in addition to social impacts, such as the separation of mixed-status families, deportations that especially affect states such as California, Texas, and Florida, which are home to nearly half of the country's undocumented immigrants.

Although Trump promised mass deportations in his first presidential campaign, annual deportations during his administration were lower than the record set by Barack Obama in 2013. Experts believe that a second, more organized term could significantly increase the numbers. The analysis warns that some studies indicate that the mass deportation approach can shift the focus away from dangerous criminals and toward immigrants with no criminal record.

Public opinion

Polls show that a majority of Americans support greater border security and deportation of criminals, but opinions differ on mass deportations. Republican states tend to support these policies, while Democratic states resist. The migrant crisis at the southern border is often portrayed as "out of control," which fuels support for stricter measures.

Who would be affected?

The primary target of deportations would include immigrants with outstanding removal orders (about 1.3 million people); individuals with criminal records (662 thousand cases identified by ICE); beneficiaries of temporary programs like DACA and TPS, as they may lose their protection. In addition, millions of asylum cases still pending could be affected by changes in the application of laws.

In short, Trump's plan for a stricter immigration policy reflects his focus on security and law enforcement, but faces substantial barriers, from legal challenges to economic costs and local pushback. Although politically polarizing, he can count on the support of a significant part of the American population, which expresses concerns about immigration and security. However, the execution of these policies will depend on coordination between state and federal governments, as well as overcoming significant legal and logistical obstacles.