As recently reported, the United States has a “new” president-elect, Donald Trump. This triumph marks a new era in relation to the Latino vote, which historically favored the Democratic Party but has shown an inclination towards the Republicans. In this election, 37% of Latino voters opted for Trump, a considerable increase compared to previous elections. In addition to the historic debate on immigration, inflation and high real estate prices have emerged as central concerns for these communities, themes that Trump explored the most during his campaign.

In addition, the division of priorities between Latino men and women also played a crucial role. Female turnout has often leaned more toward Democrats, while younger Latino men have been slightly more likely to vote Republican than in previous cycles.

These variables indicate that the Latino vote is far from monolithic and is becoming increasingly contested between parties. Following the question posed in the last analysis, we can reflect: what are the considerations to be made about the Latino vote in other large urban centers in the United States, in addition to cities such as Houston and Miami, which were previously discussed?

Philadelphia

With just over 1.5 million inhabitants, the city of Philadelphia is located in the swing state of Pennsylvania, which saw only 28% of the Latino vote won by Republican candidate Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election, with a partial of almost three times as many votes going to then-Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. The state of Pennsylvania had its history of indecision seen in the results of the last elections in the country - when Biden won the state in 2020 by 1.2%, and when Trump won the state in 2016 by 0.72% - being completely contradicted, which shows the interest of the parties in courting the local electorate.

The 2024 presidential election revealed complex dynamics in the urban vote, especially in Philadelphia, the largest city in Pennsylvania. With a voter turnout of 708,000, the city maintained similar patterns to those of 2016, although it fell short of the 2020 peak, when 750,000 voters participated, ensuring Joe Biden's victory. This decline in engagement, although modest, is a reflection of national trends, marked by distrust and political saturation.

Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, consolidated a significant victory by winning 61 of the city's 66 wards, totaling around 550,000 votes. Donald Trump, although defeated, demonstrated a strategic advance, winning 5 wards and 140,000 votes, 10,000 more than in 2020. In addition, he increased his territorial presence by capturing two additional wards compared to the previous election. This Republican evolution reflects a pattern of incremental growth in urban areas, although insufficient to reverse Democratic dominance. In Philadelphia, this stronger base of support for Trump occurred in districts with greater economic concerns, a key issue for voters in 2024.

Even so, the discontent of some Latinos with the Democratic proposals and administration could still be documented. Miguel Garcia, who lives in the north of the city of Philadelphia, describes that Hispanic families are experiencing financial difficulties, which would justify voting for Trump as an attempt to seek better economic conditions compared to the Democratic administration. However, this was not enough to garner a greater number of votes compared to 2020, when the Republican candidate received 27% of the votes from Hispanic/Latino voters.

"Some politicians can appeal to our fears, while others can appeal to our hopes and aspirations," says Rafael Damast, a Democratic voter, in an interview with CBS News. This statement describes how Harris and Trump tried to convince voters in the city of Philadelphia. With this year's electoral process duly concluded, it is clear how the campaign efforts of now-president-elect Donald Trump were unable to overcome Kamala Harris' campaign and support in Philadelphia.

Phoenix

The city of Phoenix, the capital and largest metropolis of Arizona, stands out for its population density and its economic and political relevance. With a population of over 1.6 million, Phoenix accounts for approximately 22% of the state's population, according to the 2020 Census.

Of this total, more than 600,000 people are of Latino origin, highlighting the importance of this group in the social and political dynamics of the region. In addition, the city has a GDP of approximately US$322 billion, consolidating itself as one of the largest urban centers in the United States. Maricopa County, where Phoenix is ​​located, is the most populous in the state, with 4.5 million inhabitants, having registered a population growth of 14% in the last decade. Within this contingent, almost 1.5 million people are of Latino origin, which makes the Latino electorate a decisive element in the political disputes in the region. 

The 2024 elections in Arizona revealed a complex political landscape, especially in Maricopa County, the largest and most influential in the state. Donald Trump's victory in the county, with a narrow margin of two percentage points, contrasts with the historical trend of Maricopa as a tight race, where Democrats had been gaining ground since 2018. This change, although significant, should be interpreted with caution, particularly in relation to the behavior of the Latino electorate.

Latinos make up about 31% of Arizona's population and accounted for a significant portion of the electorate in 2024. However, claims that this group would have driven Trump's victory in the county are not supported by the data. According to UnidosUS, 58% of Latinos in Arizona voted for Kamala Harris, while 41% supported Trump. This margin, while smaller than in 2020, still reflects Democratic favoritism among Latinos, especially in urban and suburban areas like Maricopa. An analysis of the votes in the county reveals an interesting split: Latinos who voted early tended to support Democrats, reflecting historical concerns about progressive immigration and social policies, and Latinos who submitted ballots on Election Day or later tended to lean more toward Republicans, signaling that economic issues like inflation and the cost of living had a significant impact on this subgroup.

In the border counties of Santa Cruz and Yuma, the dynamics of the Latino vote were even more intriguing. In Santa Cruz, where 85% of the population is Hispanic, Trump’s support rose from 31.7% in 2020 to 40.4% in 2024. Democrats still maintained a significant advantage. In Yuma, a county with a 60% Latino population, Trump’s support grew from 52% to 65% over the same period, indicating a more pronounced shift. This Republican surge can be attributed to a combination of economic concerns and immigration policies, both of which are highly relevant in border regions.

O tema econômico foi central para os eleitores latinos em todo o estado, isso pois 51% dos latinos no Arizona destacaram a inflação como sua principal preocupação, seguidos por 37% mencionando empregos e economia. Essas questões foram especialmente relevantes entre homens latinos jovens, que apresentaram maior propensão a votar nos republicanos, em contraste com as mulheres latinas, que permaneceram amplamente alinhadas com os democratas​.

Estes resultados reforçam o papel crescente do eleitorado latino, que não apenas se destaca como um grupo demográfico essencial, mas também como um bloco cada vez mais disputado em estados decisivos como o Arizona e a Pensilvânia. Para ambos os partidos, compreender e responder às complexidades desse eleitorado será essencial para futuros sucessos nos estados.

Economic issues were central to Latino voters across the state, with 51 percent of Latinos in Arizona naming inflation as their top concern, followed by 37 percent naming jobs and the economy. These issues were particularly salient among young Latino men, who were more likely to vote Republican, in contrast to Latino women, who remained largely aligned with Democrats.

These results underscore the growing role of the Latino electorate, which is not only emerging as a key demographic but also as an increasingly contested bloc in battleground states like Arizona and Pennsylvania. Understanding and responding to the complexities of this constituency will be essential for future success in the states for both parties.