On November 8, 2022, the midterm elections will take place in the United States, when 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be renewed. In parallel, voting will occur in some states for state governors, members of the state congress, and senators. From the point of view of our analysis, we will focus on national elections, as they can decisively influence the course of the US government until the 2024 presidential elections. However, we will still briefly comment on the disputes by state governments.

Traditionally, midterm elections are won by the opposition. During the first two years in office, presidents find it challenging to deliver many of the promises made during the election campaign to voters. Only George W. Bush, in 2004, achieved a significant victory. At the time, he enjoyed great popularity stemming from the wars against Afghanistan and Iraq, which followed the terrorist attacks of September 2001.

In 2022, Joe Biden's situation is quite adverse. Two events have negatively impacted his popularity: the botched withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, which allowed the Taliban to return to power, and the high rates of inflation, which had already been increased since 2021, but which were boosted by the war in Ukraine. According to the FiveThirtyEight website, as of September 20, 2022, Biden's approval rating was at 42.6%, a slight recovery compared to 38% from two months ago.

Unlike other countries with electoral competition systems, in which the vote of voters can vary greatly, the situation in the United States is more stable, as certain states tend to vote heavily for one of the two main parties. For example, California, New York, New Jersey, Washington, and Massachusetts are predominantly Democrats. Midwestern and Southern states such as Texas, Utah, Oklahoma, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee are primarily Republican. This situation is exacerbated by the widespread practice of “gerrymandering,” as discussed in Latino Observatory, in which the dominant parties in the states organize the division of districts at their own convenience.

This phenomenon turns attention to the few states and districts where there is still some competition, the so-called “swing states.”  Considering the last elections, this is the case for thirteen states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Arizona, Georgia, Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, and Maine.

Because of these characteristics, each party already enters the electoral race with a consolidated base, which leads them to direct most of their resources to the most competitive states and districts. For example, Democrats won't put a lot of resources into winning Utah's first district, which encompasses the city of Salt Lake City, because the majority Mormon population supports the conservative agenda of the Republican Party. The reverse is true. Republicans are not to spend resources to conquer California's 11th District, which encompasses the city of San Francisco, one of the most progressive regions in the country.

Next, we will briefly discuss the status of parties in disputes for the Senate, House of Representatives, and state governments.

The Senate race

When looking at the Senate race, we must consider that the Democrats have a particular advantage over their opponents. While 21 seats held by Republicans are up for grabs, Democrats are challenged in 14 seats. With more fronts to defend, Republicans are at risk of losing one or two seats in Georgia and Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight projections. It must be considered that the radical positions of the Republican candidate in North Carolina also worsen his party's chances of obtaining a majority. According to Reuters Ted Budd, ostensibly supported by Donald Trump, seems unwilling to confront Democrat Cheri Beasley, who has used the issue of abortion rights as a campaign slogan. On the Democratic side, only Nevada’s seat is more competitive since the advantage of the current senator Catherine Cortez Mazo has a slight edge over Republican Adam Paul Laxalt. According to the website, the chances of Democrats controlling the Senate is 70%.

The dispute for the House of Representatives

Unlike the Senate, FiveThirtyEight projects that Republicans have a 72% chance of controlling the House ofRepresentatives. Projections show that Democrats are likely to win 207 seats. Republicans would have secured 215 seats. In only 13 districts, there is very fierce competition. They are 22nd and 27th in California, 19th and 22nd in New York, 7th from Pennsylvania; 2nd from Arizona; 2nd from New Mexico, 8th from Colorado; 17th from Illinois, 3rd from Kansas, 13th from North Carolina, 7th from New Jersey, and 2nd from Virginia. To these, we can include one more, the 15th district of Texas, located in the Rio Grande Valley, where the population of Latin origin predominates. Republican Monica De La Cruz (R), an ultra-conservative and supporter of Donald Trump, faces Michelle Vallejo (D), who presents very progressive positions, such as defending the right to abortion, a minimum wage of 15 dollars an hour, and health care for all.

The dispute between state governments

Of the 50 states, 14 will not have governor elections. In these states, Democrats control six governments and Republicans control eight. In the remaining 36, the voting intentions indicate that the Republican Party has the majority, with 14 frankly favorite candidates and three very well positioned. On the other hand, Democrats are firm favorites in just ten states and another eight where they have better popularity than their rivals. Only Arizona, now controlled by the Democrats, has a very fierce dispute between the current governor Katie Hobbs and the Republican Kari Lake.

Latinos and Elections

As we discussed in an analysis by the Latino Observatory on August 6th, Latino voters are fiercely contested by both parties. Democrats can no longer count on the unwavering support of this community. Between 2012 and 2020, Democratic votes for president dropped from 61% (Obama) to 51% (Biden). Mayra Flores' victory in the special elections in Texas's 34th district boosted Republicans, who began to invest more resources to gain support among Latinos.

Also, in the Latino Observatory ofJanuary 7, 2022, we highlighted the Wall Street Journal survey that showed the decline in Joe Biden's popularity among Latinos. According to the paper, “When asked which party they would support if the election took place today, 37% of Hispanic voters said they would support the Republican congressional candidate, and 37% said they would support the Democrat, with 22% undecided.”

A new survey sponsored by The New York Times and Siena College on the political preferences of Latinos, released on September 18, shows that, in general terms, the support of Latinos for the Democratic Party remains strong, even though on specific issues the alignment with the Republican proposals has increased. According to the Times: “While majorities of Hispanic voters side with Democrats on social and cultural issues, sizable shares hold beliefs aligned with Republicans: More than a third of Hispanic voters say they agree more with the G.O.P. on crime and policing, and four out of 10 Hispanic voters have concerns that the Democratic Party has gone too far on race and gender. Hispanic voters view economic issues as the most important factor determining their vote this year and are evenly split on which party they agree with more on the economy.”

As noted earlier, of the 14 most competitive districts for the House of Representatives, six involve Latino candidates in the states of California (2), Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Virginia. If, on the one hand, the inflationary crisis tends to harm the intention of votes in the Democrats, the abortion issue, brought up after the defeat of the Roe vs Wade decision, can mobilize the vote in favor of Joe Biden's party. This is a topic that deserves to be followed closely. Until November 8th, we will return to this issue.