1. Political Reconfiguration and New Variables in a Republican Stronghold

On November 3rd of this year, the "midterm elections" will take place. The primary purpose is to fill 435 seats in the House of Representatives - with two-year terms - as well as 35 Senate seats, which carry six-year terms. U.S. elections are characterized by the existence of states that lean predominantly Democratic, others that are firmly Republican, and so-called "swing states", which can shift from one election to the next. Because they effectively determine the final electoral outcome, these decisive states command the primary focus and efforts of both parties.

However, in Texas - a historically Republican state - the competitiveness of the Democratic Party has been growing significantly, driven by the demographic weight of the Latino electorate; a trend that has become a source of concern for the Republican party leadership. Although the Republican Party has held every statewide office for nearly two decades, a combination of economic factors, public reaction to immigration policies, the impacts of artificial intelligence, and the nomination of controversial candidates has weakened this dominance. This landscape may represent the most concrete opportunity in years for Democrats to gain a stronger foothold in the nation’s second most populous state.

Nationwide, it is estimated that approximately 250 million adult citizens will be eligible to vote in 2026. Although white voters still make up the majority of this group (61%), their share has been steadily declining since 2006. Conversely, minority groups have gained significant ground - driven primarily by the Hispanic population, whose representation has nearly doubled over the last two decades, reaching 16% of the total (39 million voters). This rapid growth, fueled largely by U.S.-born young people reaching adulthood, has established the Latino population as the second-largest group within the American electorate, underscoring their decisive importance in the nation’s political landscape. In this context, the Latino electorate has become a pivotal factor in the future direction of the United States, exerting influence not only on the 2026 contests in Texas and at the national level, but also on the subsequent presidential elections of 2028 and 2032.

Furthermore, data from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas indicate growing disapproval of Donald Trump among Latinos in the state: 51% view him negatively, compared to 41% who view him positively - a sharp contrast to the more balanced sentiment recorded in October 2024. This discontent reflects a national trend, driven largely by concerns regarding the cost of living and the management of the economy. According to a survey by NBC/Telemundo, 48% of this group expresses greater confidence in the Democrats' economic management, compared to only 27% who prefer the Republicans.

In this context, the U.S. Supreme Court has reinstated a redrawn electoral map in Texas that favors the Republican Party, given the growing threat of losing ground to the Democrats in the state. This move was intended to secure the Republican majority in Congress for the 2026 midterm elections, overturning a lower court's decision that had suspended the new map. By potentially shifting up to five House of Representatives seats toward the Republicans, the ruling protects the party's legislative agenda and preempts potential congressional investigations initiated by the opposition. However, the Republicans - who have historically held hegemony over Texas - are currently navigating a highly complex situation and facing the concrete threat of losing control of the state. Within this dynamic landscape, the Latino electorate emerges as the most decisive variable, serving as the key factor in shaping the direction of politics at both the local and national levels.

2. The Three Engines of Change in Texas

The importance of Latinos in Texas is undeniable, as it is the U.S. state with the second-largest population of this group. In 2000, Latinos made up 32% of the region’s population - a figure that grew significantly over the following decades, reaching 39.3% in the 2020 census. Today, there are 11,441,717 Hispanics - or Latinos - in Texas, a number that accounts for more than 18% of the total Hispanic/Latino population in the entire United States.

Given this, the relevance of this community to politics is undeniable - especially considering that 36 million Latinos were eligible to vote in 2024. Data from the last presidential election show that the Democratic Party was the preferred choice for many, with 61% of the Latino vote going to candidate Joe Biden.

In this same context, the U.S. economy has been a decisive factor for Latino voters, and it will likely remain so in the November midterm elections. A 2024 poll conducted by the Pew Research Center indicated that 52% of respondents trusted Donald Trump to make sound economic decisions; now, these sentiments will be put to the test considering potential shifts in Congress. The survey also covered other issues - such as potential Supreme Court nominees, decisions on immigration policy, foreign relations, and even abortion - yielding results with narrow percentage-point margins, which indicates a lack of settled preference among Latino voters. Ultimately, approximately 44% of Latino voters held a very or mostly favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 32% shared the same view regarding the Republican Party. Preference for the Democrats varied by demographic characteristics: among women, 50% expressed a favorable opinion of the party, compared to 40% of men. Furthermore, voters aged 50 and older were more inclined to view the Democrats positively (48%) than younger voters (42%), highlighting generational and gender-based differences in this electorate's political behavior.

Regarding the cost of living in this southern state, the population has faced rising prices for basic goods over the past year, with an overall increase of 3.1%. Notably, food prices rose by 2.3%, energy costs by 15.8%, and gasoline prices by 28.5%. However, it is important to emphasize that these results stem from both domestic factors - such as rising labor costs due to a shrinking immigrant workforce, a consequence of Trump’s immigration policies and aggressive ICE enforcement - and international interventions; for instance, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a significant impact on prices.

Other indicators, such as the costs of housing, healthcare, and education, also showed increases across the southern United States. Between August 2025 and August 2026, housing prices rose by 2.6%, while rents for primary residences increased by 1.8%. Meanwhile, medical care costs saw a 1.3% rise, as did the education and communication sector. Although these increases are lower than those recorded in categories such as energy and transportation, they highlight persistent pressures on the cost of living - particularly regarding essential expenses that account for a significant portion of household budgets.

As for the city of Houston - a major economic and industrial hub in Texas - the situation is much the same; the Consumer Price Index (CPI) there recorded an annual increase of 1.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). While the overall index showed a moderate rise, the costs of energy, gasoline, and food saw sharper increases compared to the broader Southern region.

In this context, it is crucial to reiterate the political and party makeup of Texas: Republicans currently hold 88 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives and constitute the majority in the State Senate, with 20 representatives. Consequently, as previously mentioned, the Republican and Democratic parties are engaged in a fierce contest to alter the composition of these governing bodies.

Republicans such as Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott primarily advocate for tax cuts, deregulation, and incentives for housing construction, alongside measures to boost oil and gas production and combat abusive practices by large corporations. Democrats, meanwhile, prioritize financial relief measures and increased regulatory intervention to curb prices. James Talarico, for instance, proposes temporarily suspending federal fuel taxes, expanding tax benefits for families with children, and strengthening oversight of food industry companies.

According to a Reuters poll, the majority of the population - approximately 78% - blames the current administration for these significant and progressive price hikes; such proposals could prove decisive for the midterm elections and for future government strategies and agendas.

Another relevant aspect of the election debate in Texas is the issue of energy, given that the rapid growth of data centers dedicated to Artificial Intelligence places immense demands on electricity and water resources. The state is well-suited for such ventures, thanks to its extensive infrastructure, significant oil and natural gas production, and a growing capacity for electricity generation from renewable sources. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the state accounted for 13% of the electricity produced in the United States in 2024 and leads the nation in wind energy generation. While this energy capacity makes the state an attractive location for large-scale digital infrastructure, it also fuels debates regarding resource availability and the limits of industrial growth.

The primary strain is placed on the electrical infrastructure, as data centers operate continuously, requiring vast amounts of electricity to power both servers and cooling systems. In March 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php/detail.php?id=67344) highlighted that the expansion of data centers is a key driver of rising electricity demand in the United States, identifying the system managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) as one of the regions with the highest projected growth in electrical load. Consequently, if demand grows faster than generation and transmission capacity, it could lead to upward pressure on electricity prices and compromise grid reliability.

The primary strain falls on electrical infrastructure, as data centers operate continuously, requiring vast amounts of electricity for both servers and cooling systems. In March 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration(EIA) highlighted data center expansion as a key driver of rising electricity demand in the United States, identifying the system managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) as a region expected to see significant growth in electrical load. Consequently, if demand outpaces generation and transmission capacity, upward pressure on electricity prices and risks to grid reliability could arise.

The second dimension concerns the strain on water resources - particularly in regions prone to drought and water scarcity - due to the water required for equipment cooling and electricity generation at data centers. According to estimates by the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC), cited by the TexasTribune, data centers in Texas could consume approximately 25 billion gallons of water in 2025 - equivalent to 0.4% of the state's total consumption - with projections indicating this share could reach 2.7% by 2030. Although this statewide proportion is relatively small, the concentration of large facilities in specific municipalities can intensify competition for water among businesses, households, and the agricultural sector, thereby driving up costs.

In the aforementioned context, mobilizations by residents across various regions of Texas have been growing, driven by concerns over the impact these facilities may have on their quality of life and local resources. According to a report by The Texas Tribune, citizens in San Marcos and several other cities have been pressuring municipal authorities to re-evaluate or block such projects, citing high water and electricity consumption, the risk of rising energy bills, and the impact of construction on land use.

At the same time, the public has expressed opposition to the prospect that constant noise from equipment, construction-related traffic, and the installation of generators and other industrial structures could disrupt the character of residential and rural areas. Furthermore, these grassroots movements have taken on electoral significance, as they have brought issues - such as private investment decisions, urban planning, and the provision of essential services - into the realm of public debate. As described by CNN Brasil, dissatisfaction with the cost of living and the consequences of the expansion of artificial intelligence are challenging the Republican stronghold in Texas, creating an opening for Democrats to mobilize voters around everyday economic concerns. While proponents of these developments highlight the attraction of investment, tax revenue, and job creation, opponents question who will ultimately bear the environmental and infrastructure-related costs.

In short, the electoral contest in Texas is being shaped by the convergence of three factors: the growing demographic and political weight of the Latino population, the strain on household purchasing power, and the territorial impacts of technological expansion. As the growth of the Latino electorate increases its influence in shaping election outcomes, the rising cost of living tests the ability of political parties to address the everyday needs of the population. At the same time, the establishment of data centers highlights the tensions between attracting investment and the local costs related to energy and water consumption, infrastructure, and land use. In this context, the 2026 midterm elections offer an opportunity to examine Democratic proposals and re-evaluate the long-standing tenure of Republicans in the state.

Given the confluence of demographic reconfiguration, inflationary pressures, and the socio-environmental impacts of technological expansion - all detailed here - it is essential to examine the potential electoral outcomes in Texas, while accounting for the constraints imposed by existing institutional barriers.

Final considerations

The convergence of the demographic shift within the Latino electorate, the rising cost of living, and local disputes over water and energy resources - driven by the expansion of data centers - is intensifying political competition and broadening the scope for opposition in Texas.

Despite a landscape favorable to Democratic mobilization around socioeconomic and environmental issues, Texas retains robust structural barriers, such as a redrawn electoral map that favors the Republican majority. Consequently, the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections will depend directly on the opposition’s ability to translate public dissatisfaction - regarding inflation and infrastructure - into actual votes at the ballot box.