Since the end of “Roe vs. Wade”, a historic decision made by the United States Supreme Court in 1973 that guaranteed access to abortion at the federal level, Americans have been witnesing a reformulation of their electoral dynamics, with this agenda being inserted in several movements and elections accross the country since then. The 2022 midterms represent this scenario in which the favoritism of the Republican party at that time was not fulfilled in a “red wave” as expected, as the rejection to the Republicans’ positions on the right to abortion motivated thousands to go to the polls in that election, something that could happen again in 2024, especially with Latino voters.

Several Democrats see a possible mobilization in the political scenario in which, at the same time that states like Arizona and Florida are legally limiting access to abortion, the majority of the Latino population, very present in these places, is against this position. According to a survey by Axios/Ipsos in partnership with Telemundo, 68% of Latino adults oppose making any practice of abortion illegal, indicating great opposition to conservative and, in return, demanding greater attention to this issue.

Last week, the Arizona Supreme Court used an 1864 decision to restrict access to abortion in the state, a week after a similar action was made by the Florida Supreme Court. In addition to causing divided reactions from the population, the Republican party was in favor of maintaining the Court's order and blocked two attempts to reverse the decision, both Democrats, which represented perplexity regarding the deliberation. According to the words of the Democratic governor, the decision represents a real risk for women in the state due to its conservative essence: “Radical legislators protected a Civil War vision of a total ban on abortion that arrests doctors, strips women of the autonomy of our bodies and puts our lives at risk”. Even former president and likely Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said the court's ruling went “too far.”

In this way, political reactions denote a certain rejection of this legal measure made in Arizona, which can mobilize large electoral bases, such as Latinos. As it is already known, since 2022, several electoral results have shown the power of the abortion agenda on the national scene, such as “Issue 1” made in Ohio last year, in which 56.8% of the state's voters voted to make abortion a constitutional law. It is worth noting that Ohio is becoming an increasingly “red” place, that is, supporting the Republican Party. In 2020, Donald Trump won the state's 18 electoral delegates with 53.3% of thevotes. In other words, this debate on abortion cuts across party lines, something that directly impacts the Latino electorate.

Recently, it has been noted that many Latino voters are abandoning the Democratic spectrum and supporting figures from the Republican Party. To give you an idea, in the last election for Florida state government, in 2022, the city of Miami, with approximately 70% of its population being Latino or of Hispanic origin, according to the U.S. Census, secured 55% of the vote for conservative governor Ron DeSantis. Furthermore, the latest survey by The New York Times/Siena College indicated that former President Trump has 46% of voting intentions among Hispanic voters, against 40% of votes going to Biden. Indeed, this situation represents a dynamic scenario for Democrats, who previously had broad support among Hispanics, but the situation may change with the current restrictions on abortion rights.

According to Raquel Terán, a candidate for a seat in the US Congress in a heavily Democratic area of Phoenix, the population's reactions to the court's decision were one of surprise and shock: “There was a lot of shock. It's unbelievable"; “A lot of people were upset. Many people felt astonished. Many felt prepared to organize”. This statement denotes a strong rejection of the population towards the decision on abortion, indicating a different situation from what is observed in research that some issues can transform the electoral dispute. According to the latest survey carried out by the Tyson group, Donald Trump in the state would have 39% of the votes, sixpoints ahead of Biden. However, as mentioned previously, this issue of abortion can move voters who are dissatisfied with the current conservative policies that control the state, especially when it comes to Latinos.

Of the more than seven million inhabitants, 31% of Arizona's population is of Latino origin, according to a research by Pew Research. Furthermore, considering the state's electorate, approximately 20% of voters are of Latino origin, and it is predicted that 150,000 young Latinos will be of eligible voting age in this year's November elections, according to the Brennan Center. Resuming the election of Joe Biden in 2020, marked by the strong support of American youth, this moment of restriction on abortion in the state appears as a great opportunity for Democrats to rebuild this same base, which is currently more divided due to the current policies of the White House. According to a Harvard survey, 53% of young Americans intend to vote in the presidential elections, showing concern about reproductive, immigration and social issues, signaling a large youth participation like four years ago and which will probably occur in Arizona.

At the same time, the Latin population finds itself in a complex situation, in which some freedoms are being “persecuted” precisely in the country that, in theory, would guarantee these freedoms, different from their countries of origin. According to Victoria McGroary, executive director of Broad PAC, linked to Hispanic Democratic candidates, these issues involving freedoms have great attention among Latinos: “This is fundamentally about freedom. And this is something […] that Latinovoters care about a lot”. She also highlights that many Latinos shape their perspectives more through reproductive freedoms than opinions or religious beliefs, something that separates a certain conservatism from this population, many of whom are of Catholic origin and traditional communities. In this sense, when there are severe restrictions on abortion or, as has been occurring in some states governed by Republicans, restrictions onbooks, many Latinos are afraid about the future of the country in which they live, which could alter electoral results.

Thus, as has been happening since the 2022 elections, the abortion issue could further transform the chaotic scenario of the United States presidential elections, directly impacting the Latino electorate. The example of Arizona, in which the court strongly restricted abortion, research indicates that Latinos may show their discontent at the polls, something that could be harmful to Donald Trump considering that his party is strongly linked to these measures and that, in the 2020 election, he lost the state by 0.4% difference compared to Biden. This situation could be the same in other states important to the electoral race, such as Florida, which still has a strong participation of young people. However, it is important that Democrats and Biden's campaign remain attentive to these transformations, acting in accordance with the interests of these groups, given the president's low popularity among both the young population and Latinos.